Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 22 2026

...Excessive Rainfall threat across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, Plains, northern/central Rockies through Sunday...

...Chances for severe thunderstorms across portions of the
central/southern Plains into Midwest and Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic through
Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorm threat continues into Monday for portions of the
central and southern Appalachians and Southeast...


A upper-level low and associated shortwave energy will continue eastward
into the northern Plains through Sunday. At the surface, the slow moving
frontal boundary and shortwave trough across portions of the
Rockies/Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Repeated convection may
develop and organized convection may lead to high rainfall rates as the
disturbances interact with unstable moist airmass. Therefore, excessive
rainfall and flash flooding concerns will prevail across portions of the
northern/central Rockies, Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and portions of
the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday, especially where soils remain saturated
from previous rainfall. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
highlighted a risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and
severe winds across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

On Monday, the frontal system continues to push southeastward, while moist
and unstable airmass remain entrenched across portions of the Plains, Ohio
Valley/Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Organized convection may lead
to excessive rainfall concerns over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern
Plains, while a severe thunderstorm threat shifts into portions of the
central/southern Appalachians and the Southeast. Across the Southeast,
showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly during the afternoon
and evening when instability increases. Localized downpours will be
possible from slow moving storms, leaving areas across South Florida
vulnerable to excessive rain through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions continue across central and southern Plains,
Tennessee Valley, and lower Mississippi Valley, while temperatures
moderate across the northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes behind the
trough and associated frontal system.


Oudit



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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