810 
FXUS64 KMRX 291828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returning today with showers and a few storms tonight
  into Saturday, some of which may produce very heavy rainfall 
  and isolated flash flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A nearly stationary surface front sits south of our area, with a 
mid/upper level ridge extending SE to NW across the region and a 
shortwave trough just to our southwest.  This shortwave will lift NE 
and the frontal boundary will nudge back north into our area 
tonight.  

Deep moisture is spreading back north into our area, and PW Values 
will be around the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range for much of the area 
overnight into Saturday. Cape values do not look high but the tall 
skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient warm cloud processes and the 
possibility of high rainfall rates, and the surface boundary lifting 
back into our area will act to focus and sustain convective 
development as well. Localized flooding will be a concern tonight 
into at least Saturday morning, especially where any training 
cells develop. While flooding issues are likely to be isolated, 
there is enough potential for significant flash flooding to 
warrant a flash flood watch for tonight into Sunday. The highest 
threat looks to be in a swath across and near the northern Plateau
across the central Valley into the central TN mountains, but 
there is enough of a threat further south to include those areas 
as well. 

By later Saturday into Saturday night an upper low over the NE CONUS 
will rotate southward and push the frontal boundary back south. 
Surface high pressure building in from the north will bring drier 
air into the area. Sunday looks drier, although there still may be 
some convection especially south closer to the front. Sunday night 
into Monday the upper trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as 
additional energy dives south out of Canada. A cold front will 
move south across our area Monday, along with scattered showers 
and thunderstorms. 

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting 
up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday along with 
temperatures near seasonal normals.  Rain chances may tick back up 
by Friday as moisture begins to increase again. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Will see showers and a few thunderstorms spreading from south to 
north, but it is still questionable how much makes it to TRI 
before the precipitation shifts back south. Will try to time 
highest probability periods with prob30 and/or tempo groups. No 
mention of thunder at TRI as probability there is lower. Also 
expect cigs to drop to MVFR (and possibly lower) at CHA and TYS 
for period later tonight into early Saturday. Improvement back to 
VFR is likely by the end of the period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  82  64  79 /  80  70  20  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  80  61  81 /  90  80  10  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  80  60  80 /  90  80   0  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  82  56  81 /  60  40   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday 
     afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening through 
     Saturday afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North 
     Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
     Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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