013 
FXUS64 KMRX 301046 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
646 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Periods of showers/storms continue through Saturday morning, 
  some of which may produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper low spinning over Middle/West 
TN, with a negatively-tilted trough extending SE across AL/GA. 
This is producing upper divergence over East TN, which will 
maintain convective activity through the night in a moist air mass
of PW values near 2 inches. The HRRR shows showers and storms 
increasing in coverage and intensity later tonight, around 09Z in 
the northern and central TN Valley, between TYS and TRI. Rain 
rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible where storms move 
slowly or train over the same locations. Flash flooding will 
continue to be a concern, especially for areas that had heavy rain
this afternoon, such as Blount/Sevier counties and 
Morgan/Scott/Campbell counties. The Flood Watch will continue.

Through Saturday morning, precip will shift southward as the large 
closed low over New England moves south and establishes a NW flow 
across the region. This will bring drier air into the area that will 
keep dry conditions into Sunday. Chance PoPs return late Sunday with 
a weak shortwave trough in the NW flow. Another disturbance in the 
NW flow and a southward-moving cold front brings better rain chances 
on Monday. 

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting 
up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday, along with 
temperatures near seasonal normals.  Rain chances may tick back up 
by Friday as moisture begins to increase again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Widespread SHRA/TSRA continue across East Tennessee this morning
along a stationary front that will shift south through the morning
and early afternoon hours. KTRI may already be on the northern
edge of the activity expected the rest of the day so have them out
of the rain by 15z. It will be a few hours later before rain
shifts south of KTYS, and between 20z and 00z before SHRA move
back to KCHA and points south. Categories will be a mixed back
in/around rainfall, then VFR after SHRA wrap up. Not expecting fog
or low clouds tonight due to dry northerly surface flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  66  80  64 /  70  10  40  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  61  82  63 /  80  10  50  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  60  81  63 /  70   0  50  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  56  82  60 /  40   0  10  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for 
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
     Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-
     McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest 
     Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
     Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
     Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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