Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 23 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and the Central Appalachians to the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Rockies/Southern
High Plains/Southwest on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday...

A wave of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off the
Northeast Coast by Tuesday and produce heavy rain over parts of the Ohio
Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

Upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Sunday into Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the
Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has
also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central High Plains and the Southern Plains through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Northern/Central Plains and southward to the
Southeast/Gulf Coast. Additionally, an upper-level low moving over
Southern California will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Southwest and Central/Southern California.

On Tuesday, another wave of low pressure will move over the Central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, developing showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will
also extend from the Mid-Atlantic southward into Florida.

Moreover, moisture flowing northwestward over Texas into the Southern
Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Rockies and Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Rockies and Southwest.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The showers and
thunderstorms will extend northward into the Central Rockies/Central High
Plains.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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