535 
FXUS64 KMRX 201734
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Well above normal temperatures to persist into early this week. But
  relief is on the way, with a pattern change expected mid-week 
  and much cooler temperatures to follow.

- Expect isolated to scattered showers today, with increasing 
  coverage Monday through Wednesday. 

- A few strong to severe storm with damaging winds could occur
  today and Monday, with damaging winds being the primary threat.
  Localized flooding will be possible each day through Wednesday 
  as well. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Currently another hot day with highs once again expected to top out 
in the upper 80's to lower 90's across the eastern Tennessee Valley. 
While there are a few showers out there as of early this afternoon 
the coverage and intensity should both be lower than what we 
experienced yesterday with weaker synoptic forcing and lower PWAT 
values across the region. Similar conditions expected tomorrow and 
Tuesday with more hot days expected. We'll see more afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms once again... Forecast soundings suggest 
more instability on Monday and Tuesday leading to more vigorous 
afternoon convection. We could see a few severe thunderstorms with 
damaging straight line winds possible in the strongest storms. With 
the multiple days of storms and very little movement in the mean 
flow indicates the storms could sit over the same area for a while 
leading to isolated flooding.

By the middle of the week we will FINALLY see a large scale pattern 
change and usher in the first inklings of fall. Ridge builds in over 
Canada and a trough sets up closer to home that will slowly meander 
it's way through the eastern half o the United States for the rest 
of the week and into the weekend. This will much cooler temperatures 
starting Wednesday and by Thursday through the weekend we should see 
highs topping out only in the 70's for every except southeast TN 
where they may squeak across the 80 degree mark. This pattern will 
also be fairly dry with a more Canadian airmass moving in. 

Looks like we'll finally get to open the windows this weekend!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Less coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is expected today, with
TRI having the highest chance of seeing storms. Once again fog is
expected at TRI, but a lot will depend on if they get a storm this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  95  70  92 /  10  40  50  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  93  69  88 /  10  40  60  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  92  68  87 /  10  40  50  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  88  65  83 /  10  30  60  90 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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