317 
FXUS64 KMRX 221121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN mountains
  and portions of southwest VA for two separate rounds of snow.

- Quick bout of light snow this morning, then a break late 
  morning and afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall this evening 
  through Monday evening. Light to moderate accumulations expected
  in the East TN Mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential
  for low elevation flurries at times.

- Gusty winds through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected for 
  valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in highest peaks
  of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected 
  tonight through Monday across the higher elevations of the 
  southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 

- Drier with a gradual warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A cold front is progressing across the forecast area this morning 
with light radar returns. Valley locations will be predominantly 
light rain through the early morning, but any lingering light 
precipitation in northeastern valley locations around daybreak could 
be falling as light snow or flurries for a brief period. Snow 
showers in higher elevations through the morning may bring a dusting 
to 2 inches of snow in the higher peaks of the East Tennessee 
mountains. Portions of southwest VA in the Winter Weather Advisory 
could see a dusting up to an inch.  

That being said, latest RAP and NAM data suggest RH in the lowest 
portions of the DGZ to be insufficient for good dendrite production 
over the next 12 hours. This will help limit snowfall efficiency. 
Additionally, Mt LeConte and Newfound Gap COOP observations show 
about 5 or 6 days of high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s 
with afternoon sunshine to help warm the grounds. This could 
ultimately lead to melting of some initial snowfall as well. These 
two reasonings admittedly lead to lower confidence in the morning 
accumulations in that they may be over done.

After a brief drier period late morning and afternoon, a reinforcing 
shortwave translating through the base of the upper level trough 
will amplify deep nwly flow and increase moisture in the DGZ Sunday 
evening. A prolonged period of northwest flow snowfall will continue 
Sunday evening though Monday evening. This is the most likely time 
frame for snow accumulations to bring impacts. Overall event to 
snowfall amounts will generally be 1 to 4 inches between below 4kft, 
between 4 to 7 inches at and above 4kft. Isolated amounts greater 
than 7 inches will be possible at the highest peaks. For southwest 
VA, most likely totals are between 1 to 4 inches. Isolated totals 
between 3 to 5 inches at the highest peaks and ridges. Some valley 
locations in far NE TN and SW VA could see a dusting to a few tenths 
of an inch.

In addition to the snowfall, cold and breezy conditions are expected 
Sunday through Monday night. Most places will see wind gusts up to 
30mph, with high elevations of the mountains seeing closer to 40mph. 
The cold ambient temperatures and strong winds will also promote 
single digit wind chills in southwest VA and the TN mtns, with the 
highest elevations of the mtns expected to see sub-zero wind chills.

Last of the NWFS will taper off late Monday and mostly dry 
conditions with a gradual warming trend are expected Tuesday and 
Wednesday. The next chance of precipitation will be overnight 
Wednesday into Thursday as a upper trough digs into the Ozarks and 
Ohio Valley region. Dry and warm under the influence of high 
pressure for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

CHA will likely remain VFR for the period. May be some brief MVFR
cigs to start at TRI, but both TYS and TRI will likely be VFR for
much of today.  Tonight will likely see MVFR conditions again at 
TRI along with a few snow showers or flurries, and perhaps at TYS 
at least briefly. Will just include the MVFR cigs at TYS in a 
prob30 snow flurry group for now. Winds will be gusty from the 
west and northwest. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             43  23  39  22 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  39  23  36  20 /  10  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       39  23  37  20 /   0  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              37  22  31  19 /  30  40  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for 
     Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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