ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the
Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.

...Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central
Plains/Northern Ozarks...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the
northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At
the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from
south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and
central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to
near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of
the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast
zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the
afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage
expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind
gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue
into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also
be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an
axis of low-level moisture and instability.

Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in
moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to
peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited,
isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the
late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat
would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

$$
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