AWUS01 KWNH 300924
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-301500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0277
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky to Eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300922Z - 301500Z

SUMMARY...Stationary front forcing a line of storms with erratic
cell motions but ample moisture. Localized flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front denoted by a substantial moisture
gradient is providing the forcing for a line of storms to form
from southern Kentucky through eastern Tennessee. Weak, but
nonetheless sufficient southwesterly flow into the front is
allowing the moisture (PWATs as high as 1.9 inches in western
Kentucky) to lift into the developing line of storms. Since they
are both slow-moving and being reinforced by the moisture
advection, expect the storms to persist for the next several hours
until daytime heating works to disrupt the flow into the front, as
well as introduce competing forcing from diurnal heating, cold
pools, and in some areas, topography. This will result in a
gradual diminishing of the storms associated with the front itself
by late morning. While the front is stationary, since the overall
flow into the front is stronger from the moist southwest side of
the front, expect some northeastward drifting of the line of
storms through the morning.

HREF 6-hr FFG exceedance probabilities show as high as a 40-45
percent in portions of south-central Kentucky, and another local
maximum in eastern Tennessee of 25-30 percent through 15Z. Cell
mergers northwest of Knoxville are already causing flash flooding,
and expect with chaotic flow along the front that additional cell
mergers will occur into southern Kentucky through the morning.
What few pieces of high-resolution guidance are resolving the line
of storms suggest that there will be rather rapid weakening of the
storms by late morning for the aforementioned reasons, which will
diminish the flash flooding threat.

Wegman

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   37878610 37738537 37548494 37418409 37198318
            36948243 36678187 36368205 36088271 35758336
            35608382 35858436 36238504 36498571 36498579
            36538581 36868663 37008689 37418701

$$
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