414 
FXUS64 KMRX 301823
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
223 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish this 
  afternoon.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at 
  times Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall
  will be possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a 
  few storms may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday into 
  Monday evening. 

- A drier weather pattern develops during the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The flooding threat continues to decrease this afternoon as drier
air works north to south across the area and the weak frontal 
boundary still over northern portions of our area slowly sags  
further south. The flash flood watch has been allowed to expire on
schedule. Isolated convection may linger south into early 
tonight, but for the most part tonight will be dry across the 
area. 

A weak impulse in the flow will bring an increase in showers and a 
few storms again later Sunday into Sunday night especially near the 
nearly stationary front, with the highest chances currently looking 
to be across the south and central areas Sunday afternoon and then 
across central areas Sunday night although these details are still 
in flux.  Models disagree on the details, but they generally show 
the deeper moisture spreading back north with model PWAT values 
reaching the 1.5 to 1.8 inches across much of the area and what 
limited CAPE is available looks to be again distributed in a tall 
skinny profile. Given the weak boundary still over the area to act 
as a potential focus for convection and given that some areas are 
already rather wet, there is a threat of very heavy rain rates and 
localized flooding. This will bear watching, and will be added to 
the HWO for now.  

For Monday and Monday night heights will be falling as an upper 
trough digs south, and a stronger cold front will drop into and then 
through our area.  Model CAPE values approaching or exceeding 1500 
J/kg and an increase in bulk shear suggest the possibility of a few 
storms becoming strong to marginally severe especially across 
southern and central portions of our area on Monday or Monday 
evening with damaging winds the primary threat.  This threat will be 
mentioned in the HWO as well. 

A few showers or storms may linger especially north and east Tuesday 
as additional short wave energy moves through the upper trough, then 
drier and cooler air will move in and the dry conditions will then 
persist at least through Friday along with a slow warming trend. By 
late in the period, shower and thunderstorm chances may increase as 
we move into the weekend, although model trends have been to delay 
the moisture return and confidence is not high for the details that 
far out.  


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

A few showers or thunderstorms around mainly CHA early, and will 
include a tempo thunder group at CHA . Outside of any 
showers/storms, conditions should generally be VFR. However, late
in the period some low VFR or MVFR cigs will move back in at CHA,
and a few showers will be around as well. Winds will generally be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  80  64  84 /  20  40  40  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  82  63  81 /  10  30  50  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  82  63  82 /  10  40  50  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  82  60  80 /   0   0  50  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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