198 
FXUS64 KMRX 311056 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at times Sunday
  afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be 
  possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a few storms 
  may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday afternoon. 

- A drier weather pattern develops during the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A front is currently pushing south through the area, marked by a 
dewpoint gradient from around 70 south to around 50 north. It will 
be south of our area by sunrise, and a drier low level air mass will 
be in place for most of today. A ridge building along the eastern 
slopes of the Appalachians will keep the eastern portions of front 
across GA, but the western portions will lift northward from AL into 
Middle TN and near our Plateau counties with a NW-SE orientation. As 
a midlevel shortwave trough approaches, convection will likely 
initiate near the front this afternoon. In the NW flow, this 
activity will track across mainly our southern sections through the 
evening. Surface CAPE isn't very impressive, only 500-800 J/kg, so a 
severe threat is unlikely.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday afternoon in 
the form of an upstream MCS. This round of convection appears to 
have a potential to reach severe levels, with MLCAPE on the order of 
2000 J/kg, effective shear of 40-50 kt, and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg. 
Low level winds from the NW and fairly weak do not favor adequate 
SRH for a tornado threat. Wind/hail appear to be the main threats 
with storms. The caveat is that there is poor agreement on how the 
CAMS are depicting this activity, with the HRRR being the most 
aggressive to bring it in our area, while the HiRes-ARW keeps it 
farther west in Middle TN into northern AL. The FV3 has a later 
arrival time than the HRRR. The wording in the HWO will be beefed up 
for this potential threat.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over 
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some 
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday 
afternoon. Beyond that, A large blocking ridge will be over the 
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of 
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

The latest high resolution guidance has a later arrival time of
ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA in East Tennessee than previously forecast.
Expect convection to initiate near the Cumberland plateau between
20z-22z, then shift east into the TN valley. Still expect 
coverage to be scattered enough to preclude going with more than a
PROB30 at KTYS and KCHA, with lower confidence at KTRI. Regarding
flight categories, MVFR is expected this afternoon with 
approaching SHRA/TSRA. Low confidence in whether MVFR CIGS linger
overnight, so will stick with a return to VFR levels after showers
dissipate late this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  64  85  65 /  40  30  30  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  64  82  61 /  40  40  50  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  63  82  60 /  30  40  60  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  61  81  56 /   0  10  50  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)