Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 22 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 24 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest on Tuesday and
Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Monday...

A wave of low pressure over the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic will
linger over the region and produce heavy rain over parts of the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the region through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. In addition, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will extend from the Mid-Atlantic westward to parts of the
Northern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains
through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Central/Southern Appalachians into parts of
the Southeast on Wednesday.

Upper-level energy and moisture moving northwestward from the Gulf will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
Southwest/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest/Southern
Rockies on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas.

On Wednesday, the showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue
over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest
on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are
possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas. Also on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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