AWUS01 KWNH 311218
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-311816-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of Georgia, extreme southern South
Carolina, and far northeastern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311216Z - 311816Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms are increasing in coverage
while producing spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates - especially just
south of Augusta.  Flash flooding is likely on at least an
isolated basis through midday.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were gradually increasing in
coverage along a nearly-stationary front extending from near
Charleston, SC to Atlanta and Rome, GA.  Along and ahead of this
front, areas of ~500 J/kg MLCAPE were evident via objective
analyses amid 1.7 inch PW values, supportive of deep convective
updrafts with efficient rain rates.  Additionally, shear
throughout the lower troposphere was negligible (5-15 knots),
allowing for storms to focus along the aforementioned front
without moving much.  As a result, areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
were noted with convection in far eastern Georgia, with additional
convection developing due to heating/destabilization along the
front.  Flash flooding is expected on at least a localized basis
given the evolving regime.

Flash flood potential should continue through at least 18Z/2p
eastern today.  The aforementioned front will move very little,
with any shifts in axes of heavy rainfall likely driven by local
convective influences and any mergers of cold pools that occur
through the morning.  FFG thresholds are 2-3 inch/hr range
(locally lower in northern Georgia and in areas that received
ample rainfall yesterday closer to Athens and Eatonton).  These
thresholds should be exceeded at times on at least an isolated
basis this morning.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...HUN...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34578539 34428421 33748263 33098080 32348027 
            31388080 31508314 33378595 34328603 

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