 roduct: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 22-Jul 24 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 22-Jul 24 2026
Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 3.00
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 4.00 2.00 2.67
12-15UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
18-21UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 22 Jul due to
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2026
Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 21 2026 1727 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2026
Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with further M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely on 22-24 Jul primarily due to the
flare potential of AR 4493.
--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)
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