Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 23 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 25 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the
Southern High Plains through Thursday...

...Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across portions of the Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Central/Southern Appalachians through Wednesday...


A upper-level low/trough will dig into the Southwest and interact with
both the Pacific and Gulf moisture, leading to showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the Four Corners and the Southern/Central
Plains/Rockies. The combination of deep tropical moisture, sufficient
instability, and upper-level forcing will lead to high rainfall rates and
excessive rainfall across portions of the Four Corners and western Texas
tonight. Additionally, WPC maintains a Moderate Risk (at least 40% chance)
of excessive rainfall for southern New Mexico, while a broader area of
Slight Risk (at least 15% chance) covers much of New Mexico. The flash
flooding threat is expected to increase on Wednesday, as the primary
shortwave energy lifts northward through New Mexico. Therefore, the
Marginal and Slight Risk for excessive rainfall will expand into the
Central Plains, while a broad area of Moderate Risk will encompass much of
eastern New Mexico. The southwest moisture will gradually transport
northeastward along a slow-moving boundary, bringing showers and
thunderstorms across the Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest by
late Wednesday into Thursday.

Furthermore, a upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes will gradually
shift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while the frontal
boundary will settle southward across the Southern Plains into the
Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. A developing coastal low
offshore will help maintain low-level moisture ahead of the slow-moving
frontal boundary, supporting period of showers and thunderstorms from
portions of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Appalachians and
Southeast. Pockets of elevated instability may develop along the frontal
boundary, leading to severe thunderstorm concerns across the Southeast.
Additionally, slow storm motions and efficient warm moisture will lead to
locally high rainfall rates within the strongest storms, leading to flash
flooding concerns over portions of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast.

By Wednesday, the boundary over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley will move
further south, but shortwave troughs will reinforce another round of
showers and thunderstorms across the area. This will lead to another day
of flash flooding concerns over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley,
especially over areas where soil remains saturated from previous rainfall.
Further south, a moist and unstable airmass will persist across southern
Florida leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with
locally heavy downpours possible through Thursday.

Temperature-wise, a strong surface high will bring colder than average
temperatures across the northern/central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast behind the frontal boundary, while the southern Plains into the
Southeast will remain warm and humid.

Kebede/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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