451 
FXUS64 KMRX 221742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- A few strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds aren't 
  out of the question today, but overall severe chances are low. 
  Additionally, some localized flooding could also occur, but 
  again chances are relatively low.

- Tuesday will be the last day with above normal temperatures. 
  Wednesday will feature near-normal temperatures as a pattern 
  shift occurs, with below normal temperatures expected Thursday 
  onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Currently still cloudy across much of the northern/eastern Tennessee 
Valley, but we are clearing out from west to east with lingering 
clouds from early morning convection. CU field out there is 
currently also a bit slow to develop this afternoon. Still think 
we'll see some afternoon convection, but I'm a bit more pessimistic 
than some of the previous days of model runs with these clouds 
sticking in. Mid and upper levels of the atmosphere should be 
conducive to producing thunderstorms that could bring gusty winds 
and isolated flooding from all the rain overnight. At this time 
can't rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms, but the threat 
for widespread severe weather appears low.

Tomorrow we finally start to turn the corner into more fall-like 
weather (at least for a little while). The upper low associated with 
the rex block, shifts southeast to the Carolinas region Wednesday 
night into Thursday, allowing for more northerly flow to move into 
the region, bringing in significantly cooler and drier air. Wednesday 
won't be the real cool day, but it should help keep parts of 
southeast Tennessee below 90 degrees for the first time in quite a 
while.

This pleasant pattern persists through the weekend with temps 
primarily in the 70's for most of the Valley. We'll begin to warm 
back up next week (back into the 80's for many) as ridging builds 
back in over the central/eastern United States. However with it 
turning more into fall, these strong ridges USUALLY don't set up for 
as prolonged of periods.&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Storms are very sluggish to start today, so have opted with a
PROB30 during peak storm timing. Fog did not present itself at TRI
last night, so have opted to leave it out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  85  64  81 /  30  70  60  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  81  64  77 /  40  80  80  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  81  63  77 /  30  70  60  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  76  57  73 /  50  60  60  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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