FOUS30 KWBC 010807
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, AND MID-SOUTH...

...Northern Rockies...
A closed mid-level system will continue to slowly move across 
Montana during the period, bringing an additional 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall. The Marginal Risk for isolated / localized flooding was 
maintained with minimal adjustments based on the 00Z guidance.

...Mid-South...
Early morning MCS across eastern Kansas and Missouri is expected 
to continue to move east/southeast through this morning toward the 
TN Valley and Mid-South. Forward propagation after 12Z should 
overall limit widespread heavy rainfall, but some elements may 
locally train/repeat over the same area bringing a risk of flash 
flooding, particularly early in the period across eastern Missouri.
While that activity is likely to wane by late morning, additional
thunderstorms are expected to fire up along remnant outflow 
boundaries to the south and west across Mississippi and Alabama. 
Pockets of 1-2" in a short duration may result in isolated flooding,
with the overall threat maintained at the Marginal Risk level. 

...Central Plains...
Broad upper level forcing across the region along with modest
southeasterly low level flow will bring isolated to scattered
diurnally driven convection today across the High Plains that will
gradually track eastward through south central Nebraska and western
to central Kansas into this evening and overnight. The Marginal 
Risk was maintained with a few adjustments based on the latest 
model guidance. 

...West Texas into New Mexico...
Modest forcing for ascent across the region combined with low level
southeasterly flow will bring westward Gulf moisture. Diurnal
convection is expected across the Davis and Sacramento Mtns. Based
on the 00Z hi-res models, some of this convection may spread away
from the terrain, but overall expected to be isolated in coverage
with a localized flash flood risk today. 

Taylor


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas into New Mexico...
By Tuesday, the latest model guidance suggests greater moisture
will expand westward toward the region (compared to today) with PW
anomalies approaching 1.5 to 2 std deviations above normal. Another
round of terrain driven convection is expected that spreads east
across the area. Overall, pockets of 1 to 2 inches are possible
with resulting isolated/scattered flash flooding, particularly for
any sensitive locations such as burn scars and steeper terrain. 

...Great Plains...
Large scale forcing for ascent across the High Plains will work
with an increasing amount of low level moisture to produce several
clusters of thunderstorms during the period capable of producing
heavy rainfall - one area of concern is across eastern to central
Kansas where the latest guidance has pointed toward the potential
for several repeating clusters of intense rain rates. Some of this
additional rainfall may fall on areas expected to see heavy
rainfall today. A second area of concern is the Northern Plains 
where there is likely to be better forcing with the proximity to 
the mid/upper level feature. Here, moisture isn't as high and storm
motions may be faster, but potential exists for intense rain rates
and locally heavy rainfall. Both of these areas (Dakotas and 
western/central KS) may need upgrades to Slight Risk if trends 
continue with future model cycles but for now, have maintained the 
Marginal given some of the uncertainty heading into Tuesday. 

...North Florida through the Gulf Coast...
A cold front will slowly advance southward across the region during
the day Tuesday, with copious amounts of moisture pooling along and
ahead of it. Thunderstorms are likely to develop, particularly 
focused on the Florida Panhandle to northeast Florida where the 
latest guidance points to the potential of 1-3" locally. Localized 
/ isolated flash flooding will be possible due to the expected 
intense rain rates and overall slower storm motions. 

Taylor


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...

...West Texas into New Mexico...
A greater signal exists for a stronger mid-level shortwave to move
across the southern High Plains on Wednesday. This feature, 
combined with the continued relatively higher moisture in place, 
should result in robust convection to develop across far eastern 
New Mexico into western Texas, particularly across the TX Panhandle.
A Slight Risk was maintained for the potential of isolated to 
scattered flash flooding, some of which may fall on similar areas as Tuesday.

...Great Plains...
The active pattern across the Plains is expected again on
Wednesday with a plume of relatively higher moisture extending from
Texas all the way north into the Northern Plains. Daytime
convection is expected to fire up across the Plains and then move
east/southeast into the evening/overnight hours. Several organized
clusters of convection are likely with pockets of locally heavy
rainfall. For now, a broad Marginal Risk remains in place for
isolated instances of flash flooding. 

Taylor
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 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)