934 
FXUS64 KMRX 011737
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Severe threat across southern areas this afternoon has greatly
  diminished. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and storms
  possible across the area through this evening. A few storms may
  be strong to severe. 

- After a chance of showers Tuesday, a dry weather pattern will
  set up across the region during the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Early morning low-level clouds, combined with convective debris 
clouds from early morning storms across middle tn, have limited 
the instability across the southern TN Valley. The severe threat 
has greatly diminished across this area through the rest of the 
afternoon. 

The main severe threat will be further west across Alabama. 
Areas along and north of I-40 saw some partial clearing earlier 
today. These areas will have the better chances to see some 
isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and 
evening. With moderate effective shear of around 35 kts and DCAPE
values around 1000 J/kg, an isolated strong to possible severe 
storm can't be ruled out. Showers and storms diminish this evening
and overnight with loss of heating. The main threats with any 
stronger storm will be isolated damaging wind gusts from 50 to 60
mph and 0.5 to 1 inch hail.


On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over 
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some 
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday 
afternoon as a shortwave trough extending from the close low rotates 
across the Appalachians. The cold temps aloft under this trough will 
generate scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. 
Some small hail cannot be ruled out either, given the cold temps 
aloft creating midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km and WBZ heights 
around 8 kft.

For Wednesday and beyond, a large blocking ridge will be over the 
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of 
the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MVFR conditions likely to move into CHA soon and remain most of
the afternoon. PROB30 for MVFR at TYS and TRI if thunderstorms
pass over the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions tonight after
the rain and storms have ended. Winds will generally be out of the
west, transitioning to north, 10kts or less through the period, 
outside or any thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  81  59  80 /  40  10  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  80  56  79 /  20  20  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  80  55  79 /  20  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  77  51  80 /  10  30   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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