078 
FXUS64 KMRX 020525
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- A chance of showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon 
  mainly for the Southern Appalachians, northeast TN, southwest 
  VA, and southwest NC. Small hail and gusty winds are possible.

- A dry weather pattern will and set up across the region for the
  rest of the week. Slightly below normal temperatures through 
  Thursday with drier air, then a return to near normal 
  temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A fairly stout backdoor shortwave trough will swing overhead later 
this morning and afternoon. This will support and help fire isolated 
to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly along the 
Southern Appalachians. That chance also extends over Southwest NC, 
northeast TN, and southwest VA this afternoon until about sunset. 
CAPE will be in the neighborhood of a couple of hundred, and lapse 
rates will be steepening under colder temps aloft. M-L LRs on a 
couple of forecast soundings indicate near 7 C/Km. So, small hail 
cannot be ruled out, as well as gusty wind potential with DCAPE in 
the 700s. Surface temperatures will be a bit cooler today, as 
well as dew points markedly lower.

Wednesday until the middle of the weekend will be a welcomed change 
to the weather pattern, especially for areas that have seen copious 
amounts of rain lately. Ridging aloft will shift over from the west, 
while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes drifts to the Mid- 
Atlantic, with time. This will keep the forecast area dry for 
multiple days. Slightly below normal temperatures can be expected 
today through Thursday, with a return to near normal temperatures 
Friday onward. Humidity also won't be as bad as what it has been at 
the start of the aforementioned days. A slow return to 60s and some 
70s dew points can be expected next weekend when return flow tries 
to develop out ahead of increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Incoming disturbance aloft will spark off ISOLD to SCT SHRA this 
afternoon and perhaps a few TSRA as well. This will be primarily 
over the mountains and in the northern TN valley. Included a 
PROB30 at KTRI to account for this but it doesn't seem necessary 
elsewhere. Otherwise, tightening surface pressure gradients will
lead to gusty NE winds at KTYS and KCHA later today. Flight
categories should remain VFR through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  59  81  59 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  55  80  57 /  10  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  51  81  53 /  50  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD


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