039 
FXUS64 KMRX 221825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Ongoing flooding across our northern half with this threat 
  gradually diminishing during the late afternoon and early 
  evening.

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash 
  flooding later today into Thursday over our south and southeast 
  counties. 

- Additional showers and storms at times for the Friday through Wednesday
  time frame, with the most coverage expected across the south 
  Friday and Saturday.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Training showers and thunderstorms have been causing flooding as 
expected today. The flash flood watch will be allowed to continue
today over the northern two thirds of the area, with the southeast
corner of the current watch extended into Thursday per discussion
below.


The summertime cold front currently over our northwest counties will 
sag slowly south and east the remainder of today and tonight. 
Exactly how far it makes it before becoming nearly stationary is not 
certain, but right now it looks like it will be around or just south 
of our south/southeast border by sometime Thursday morning.  As the 
front shifts south, the threat of heavy rainfall will shift south as 
well. The atmosphere will still be primed for heavy rain rates with 
tall skinny CAPE profiles and high PWAT values around or above 2 
inches across the south ahead of the front, and the front will still 
be the focus for showers and possibly a few storms tonight into 
Thursday. Storm motions roughly parallel to the front will also 
continue the threat of training cells. CAMS and the hi-res ensembles 
show a band of risk for very heavy rain across our SW NC and 
southeast counties. The flash flood guidance is generally higher 
south than it was further north, but given the potential for 
training of high efficiency rainmakers will issue an additional 
flash flood watch for tonight into Thursday for our southeastern 
counties and will also extend the southeast corner of the current
watch into Thursday. Northwestern areas should be dry Thursday 
behind the front.


The remainder of the forecast has the basic pattern of upper ridging 
to our west and troughing over the eastern CONUS continuing.  We 
will see short wave energy moving southeast on the back side of the 
trough at times that will bring additional showers and storms to our 
area for the Friday through Wednesday period.  Timing of these 
features and the resulting convection is still uncertain especially 
as we get further out in time. However, for Friday and Saturday with 
the front not far from our southern border, the chances for showers 
and storms will be highest south along with the threat of locally 
heavy rainfall and flooding. The location of greatest flooding 
threat will depend on exactly where the front is located which is 
still unknown. Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a 
bit below normal, then the remainder of the period through Wednesday 
will likely see temperatures not far from normal for this time of 
year.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Will see primary area of showers and a few storms shifting south,
so primarily TRI/TYS early on and mainly CHA late. Will see VFR
early with periods of MVFR or lower with the heavier showers 
and/or storms. Confidence is not high on trends later in the 
period, but will continue with predominant MVFR conditions for 
later tonight into Thursday at TYS/CHA, with TYS likely back to 
VFR late. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  84  72  86 /  90  80  40  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  84  69  85 /  70  40  40  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  84  67  85 /  60  20  30  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  82  65  82 /  70  20  20  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East 
     Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

     Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Anderson-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-
     Johnson-Knox-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Roane-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Southeast 
     Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Loudon-North Sevier-
     Northwest Blount-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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