Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 24 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the
Southern High Plains through tomorrow...

...Developing coastal low spreads coastal flooding, rip currents, wind
gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast this week...

This afternoon, satellite imagery depicts a plume of tropical moisture
streaming northward into the Southwest and Southern High Plains in between
a trough over Baja California, and an upper-high in the western Gulf. The
persistence of this pattern will fuel the threat for impactful flash
flooding over portions of Central New Mexico and the Southern Plains today
and tomorrow, especially in light of yesterday's rainfall. The greatest
coverage of heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected later today into
the overnight hours, where some areas could see storm total rainfall of
2-4" on top of what fell yesterday. As such, locally significant and life
threatening impacts are possible, particularly across sensitive terrain,
urban areas, and burn scars. Tomorrow, rainfall coverage will decrease
somewhat, although significant flash flooding certainly remains possible
as any additional rain atop inundated soils will quickly translate to
runoff. Accordingly, Flood Watches are in affect through Thursday evening.
Further to the east, Sufficient moisture and slow-moving storms may lead
to flash flooding concerns across portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along an inverted trough axis this
afternoon.

Meanwhile, a strong coastal low is expected to rapidly spin up in the
western Atlantic over the next 24-36 hours and approach southern New
England by Friday. This system will usher in a swath of hazardous weather
to portions of the East Coast, including significant coastal flooding, rip
currents, wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, and heavy rainfall. Coastal
residents are encouraged to heed local National Weather Service forecasts,
warnings, and the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Another strong system is forecast over the Pacific Northwest late
tomorrow, which  will usher in soaking rains through Friday. As this
system intensifies, expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
support at least an isolated risk of heavy rainfall over the Heartland on
Friday. In its wake, cooler than average temperatures will begin to set in
over the Northern Tier by Friday-Saturday.


Asherman/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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