ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low over southern Manitoba Thursday morning is
forecast to move into Ontario ahead of a weakening short-wave trough
translating from the northern Rockies into northern Plains. A
separate disturbance is expected to progress through the central
Plains. In the low levels, a surface low will track from southern
Manitoba into northwest Ontario while a trailing cold front advances
through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing
extension of the boundary will link with a surface low over eastern WY.

...Northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes...

The synoptic front and low-level upslope flow north of the boundary
in the northern High Plains will be the main foci for strong to
severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into night. The
most favorable overlap of steep lapse rates, moderate instability,
and modestly strong vertical shear is expected to reside in those
same areas from the northern High Plains east into the mid MO Valley.

Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weakening short-wave
trough, diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is anticipated
Thursday afternoon from portions of eastern MT into western SD, near
and to the north of the stalled surface front. The environment
appears supportive of supercell storm modes capable of large to very
large hail initially, especially across western SD. Some model
guidance suggests that the initial discrete storms may grow upscale
into a forward-propagating MCS that would advance east across SD
Thursday night with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.

A potentially separate strong to severe storm regime may materialize
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and
eastern NE into western IA in association with the lower-latitude
disturbance moving through those areas. Vertical shear will be
weaker than locations farther to the northwest; however, the
presence of a moderately unstable air mass may support isolated
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Isolated to widely scattered, strong to severe storms may also
develop along the cold front across parts of the upper Great Lakes
into upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening with an associated
damaging wind and/or large hail risk.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

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