FOUS30 KWBC 020809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTH DAKOTA...

...Dakotas...
A mid to upper level system and associated surface front will 
approach the region during the period. Ahead of it, warm moist air 
will expand across the area with the latest guidance showing 
precipitable water values over 1.2" and by afternoon, MUCAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/kg. Deep convection firing up in the afternoon
will initially be more discrete but is expected to evolve into 
linear segments as the evening commences with a ramp up late in the
period possible with the developing low-level jet. 

The 00Z HREF shows the threat for rainfall totals in excess of 3" 
across the Slight Risk area with the greatest potential across 
central to northeastern ND (50-80 percent). Isolated maximum hourly
rainfall totals of 2 inches will be possible. For these reasons, 
the Slight Risk for flash flooding looks appropriate and no 
significant changes were made for this update. 

...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas...
Another day of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
region is expected as moist southeasterly flow expands further
westward into eastern New Mexico. With cool temperatures aloft
given the baggy trough in place, this should be sufficient for
greater coverage of thunderstorms, initially tied to the terrain
and then moving eastward toward the NM/TX border. Peak hourly
rainfall totals in excess of 1 inch will be possible across eastern
NM and total amounts of 1" to locally 3" will be possible. The
Slight Risk is maintained for the potential of isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding particularly for sensitive areas like 
burn scars and steeper terrain. 

...Gulf Coast into South Florida...
A frontal boundary analyzed early this morning across the Gulf 
Coast is expected to slowly drop southward through the period.
Along and ahead of this feature, precipitable water values range
from 1.5" to locally over 2", which is around 1.5 std above normal
for some locations. The frontal position, combined with a favorable
upper pattern, will provide the forcing for ascent today. With
expected instability values exceeding 1500 J/kg (MUCAPE) during
peak heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely.

The latest HREF probabilities show potential for hourly rain 
totals between 1-2" (up to 50 percent probability), peaking during 
the afternoon to early evening hours. Totals of 1-3" are expected 
within the risk area, with isolated totals of 3-5" possible in the
strongest/slowest thunderstorms, most likely to occur across 
portions of FL Panhandle and across South Florida. Isolated to 
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible given the 
potential for intense rain rates, particularly over sensitive
locations like urban corridors.

Taylor


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 03 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WEST TEXAS
INTO NEW MEXICO...

...West Texas into New Mexico...
Weak troughing aloft and the remaining relatively higher moisture
in place across the region will likely promote the development of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms again on Wednesday. The focus
for the greatest concentration of thunderstorms and rainfall 
totals will shift a bit further east this day, likely along the 
NM/TX border into the TX Panhandle where amounts of 1-2" with 
isolated 3" totals likely. Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible. 

...Great Plains...
An axis of higher moisture will be present ahead of an advancing
cold front moving across the Northern Plains. Moist unstable air
ahead of it will promote the development of several clusters of
thunderstorms capable of producing intense rain rates between
1-2"/hr. Isolated to scattered flash flooding is anticipated with 
a possible upgrade to a Slight Risk needed for parts of eastern ND
and far western MN if trends continue for a more concentrated area
of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 04 2026 - 12Z Fri Jun 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, AND TEXAS...

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... 
Shortwave energy ejects into the Plains during the period with the
frontal boundary expected to become increasingly west to east 
oriented as it drapes across the Upper Midwest by Thursday. This 
will allow the moisture to pool ahead of it while also creating a 
more favorable setup for training/repeating thunderstorms that are 
expected to develop during the peak heating and continue into the
overnight hours with the surging low level jet. While there 
remains uncertainty on placement (north solutions versus some that 
are further south), the ingredients appear to be in place for heavy
rainfall from portions of the Dakotas eastward toward Minnesota. 
For now, a Marginal Risk remains in place but an upgrade to a 
Slight Risk may be needed in future updates if trends continue for 
a training thunderstorm scenario.

...Plains to Texas... 
A mid to upper level system slowly moving east out of western
Mexico will approach the region during the period. As it does so,
it will continue to pull into the area copious amounts of Gulf 
moisture. This will bring additional rounds of thunderstorms to the
area, some of which will be locally heavy given the PWs in place 
and potential for repeating rounds. For now, will keep a Marginal 
Risk in place, but if greater organization of storms or confidence 
on specific areas rises, a Slight Risk may be needed for portions 
of western to central Texas with future updates. 

Taylor
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)