983 
FXUS64 KMRX 021847
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for
  northeast TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC this afternoon. Any
  thunderstorm could lead to gusty winds and small hail. 

- A dry weather pattern will and set up across the region for the
  rest of the week. Near to slightly below normal temperatures
  through Thursday, then a return to slightly above normal
  temperatures Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An impulse traversing mean flow aloft will allow for a deepening 
upper trough to swing through the southern Appalachians this 
afternoon and tonight. Latest radar mosaic depicts scattered showers 
with isolated thunderstorms developing as this happens. Convection 
will remain primarily focused around the higher terrain and far 
northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia as we head into the 
evening. Most valley locations and the Cumberland Plateau will 
remain dry. 

Latest RAP soundings depict mid-level lapse rates increasing to 6.5-
7.0 C/km and wet-bulb zero levels falling to near 8kft. Small hail 
will be the main concern with isolated thunderstorms. DCAPE between 
700-1000 J/kg suggest evaporative cooling could also contribute to 
locally gusty winds, though, MLCAPE 500J/kg or less will limit 
severe concerns. Overall, quiet weather is expected overnight. Drier 
air and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 
50s. Patchy fog is also possible in and near river valleys. 

We finally see a pattern shift to drier weather and near normal 
temperatures as an upper level ridge and high pressure settle in 
tomorrow. The dry pattern will continue through much of the week and 
even into the weekend, though a gradual warming trend is expected as 
H5 heights increase Friday. Southerly flow will enhance moisture 
advection into the region Sunday and into the new week. This will 
bring a return of precip chances as the northeast trough axis makes 
an attempt to extend further southwest. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Predominant VFR conditions for the period. Breezy northerly winds
are expected at CHA/TYS this afternoon, becoming light at 5kts or
less tonight into Wednesday as high pressure settles in. There
will be scattered showers with isolated thunder in vicinity of 
TRI for a few hours this afternoon. Reduced visibility may occur 
if a storm directly impacts a terminal. A brief PROB30 is used to 
highlight the time of greatest probability. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  80  57  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  80  56  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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