956 
FXUS64 KMRX 231823
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
223 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be around 
  mainly south and southeast areas through Friday. There remains a
  threat of locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding. 

- Higher chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms can
  be expected during the Friday night into Saturday night period.
 
- For Sunday through Thursday, isolated to scattered showers and 
  storms will be possible at times, especially north. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The weak boundary is trying to edge to our south, and the threat 
of heavy rainfall and flooding is diminishing across our area for 
this afternoon. The flash flood watch will be allowed to expire on
time across the central mountains and areas adjacent, but will 
allow the flash flood watch across the south to continue as is for
now since the threat of flooding, while lower, is still non-zero 
especially in areas where the ground is already saturated. 

With the proximity of the nearly stationary boundary to our south, 
an inverted surface trough oriented with its axis up the Tennessee 
Valley, and weak short wave energy moving across aloft during 
Friday, convection is expected to increase again across mainly over 
our south and east counties later tonight into Friday. Convective 
energy looks very limited but may be enough for a few thunderstorms. 
Some of the CAMS suggest locally heavy rainfall will be possible 
over our far southeast counties, especially our SW NC counties. 
While currently the threat of flooding looks lower than what we have 
experienced today and yesterday, there looks to be enough of a 
localized flooding threat to warrant mentioning in the HWO for 
Friday.

The general pattern from Saturday through Thursday will be a large 
upper ridge continuing to build to our west over the Plains and an 
eastern CONUS trough.  We will see short wave energy sliding through 
the northwest flow over our region at times which will increase 
chances for showers and storms.  The most notable short wave 
activity is forecast to move across the area sometime in the Friday 
night through Saturday night time frame although models differ on 
the details.  This should result in scattered to numerous showers 
and possibly a few thunderstorms (although current model data 
suggests CAPE will be limited at best). For Sunday through Thursday 
timing of individual short waves is quite uncertain, but chances for 
showers and storms with these features does generally look higher 
north than south.   

Temperatures for Friday and Saturday look to be a bit below normal, 
then the remainder of the period will likely see temperatures not 
far either side of seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered showers and a low chance of a thunderstorm (too low for
mention in the TAFs) will be around TYS and especially CHA early
in the period, and a few showers will be around again late in the 
period. MVFR conditions to start will likely improve to VFR for a
period later today into tonight, then conditions will slide back 
to MVFR all sites later in the period. Winds will generally be 
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  88  72  87 /  40  50  50  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  86  70  85 /  20  20  30  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  87  69  85 /  10  20  30  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  83  67  81 /  20  20  20  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Bledsoe-
     Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest 
     Monroe-Rhea-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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