Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across Southwest into central Plains
through Friday...

...Developing strong coastal low brings coastal flooding, rip currents,
wind gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend..

The upper-level trough will remain over the Southwest on Thursday as
tropical moisture continues to move northeastward towards the central
Plains. The associated plume of moisture will gradually shift east.
Large-scale forcing has diminished compared to the previous days, which
will result in less widespread precipitation, but instability and embedded
shortwave energy will support scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. Portions of New Mexico and Texas will remain sensitive to
additional rainfall due to saturated soils from previous rainfall. With
expected high rainfall rates, WPC continues to highlight a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south
and central Plains. Additionally, a broad Marginal Risk covers much of the
Four Corners into central Plains as the trough will also support isolated
to scattered storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible, across the
region. By Friday, an axis of broad moisture and instability will extend
into the Midwest, leading to high rainfall rates and flash flooding
concerns from portions of the Southwest, south/central Plains, and
Midwest. Across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms through early Saturday morning as
instability and moisture continues to move eastward.

Over eastern U.S., a inverted trough will continue to bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and coastal areas on Thursday. Furthermore, the
strong coastal low over western Atlantic will continue to intensify by
late week and will bring strong onshore flow across the Mid-Atlantic
northward into the New England by the weekend. Expect showers to develop
across the coastal areas by Friday and becoming heavier and more
persistent by late Friday into early Saturday. Prolonged rainfall could
produce locally high rainfall total, particularly across southern New
England and eastern Massachusetts. Additionally, expect wind gust in
excess of 45 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding, high surf, rip
currents, and beach erosion. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for
this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

A strong Pacific shortwave will deepen as it moves into the Pacific
Northwest late Thursday. Sufficient moisture and frontal forcing will
result in a period of widespread showers across Washington and Oregon and
gradually into the Northern Rockies by Friday. With the arrival of cooler
air, possible snow accumulations may occur over the highest elevations
within the northern Rockies and Cascades.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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