931 
FXUS64 KMRX 240513
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Showers and a few storms are likely today, mainly across southeast 
Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and the East Tennessee 
mountains. Isolated flooding will be possible again due to recent 
heavy rainfall. 

- Additional showers and possibly an isolated storm are possible 
again tonight into Saturday.

- Sunday through most of next week, temperatures will rise well
  into the 80s and low 90s with isolated to scattered storms at
  times. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing is centered off to the northeast, 
along with surface high pressure. A frontal boundary that produced a 
lot of the recent rainfall is along and south of I-40. This has 
kept drier and milder air in the north with deep moisture 
remaining in southern portions of the area. As such, additional 
showers and isolate storms are likely today, focused towards 
southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and the East 
Tennessee mountains. Based on the CAMs, better coverage and 
intensity remains south, but recent saturation will pose at least 
an isolated flooding threat in those areas.

Tonight into Saturday, this boundary will weaken and track further 
north with another shortwave swinging through. Overall, moisture 
will be lessened with minimal instability, likely resulting in 
mainly showers. By Sunday, the shortwave will deepen to our east 
with ridging and high pressure expanding from the west. With drier 
air in place, rain chances will be limited, but height rises will 
push temperatures further into the 80s to near 90.

The synoptic pattern will remain fairly unchanged throughout much of 
next week with a 5,940m to 5,970m high centered over the desert 
southwest and a general troughing pattern to our east. There are 
varying indications of shortwaves moving through the region, 
potentially moreso around Wednesday. The general northwest flow 
pattern will keep chances for showers and storms in the forecast 
with eventual shortwaves elevating the coverage. The more limited 
coverage should certainly decrease the flooding threat well below 
what has been seen recently.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Obs show highly variable ceilings across East TN, which makes for
an uncertain forecast. The general expectaion is that MVFR cigs
will increase and become predominant at all TAF sites around 10Z.
TRI is expected to have showers developing in the area at the
time, with a lesser chance at TYS. Gradual lifting of cigs to VFR
is expected in the afternoon, with showers potentially in the
vicinity of CHA this afternoon, with a 30% chance of one at the
terminal producing MVFR vis/cigs. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  72  87  73 /  70  10  60  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  70  85  71 /  60  10  30  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  69  85  70 /  20  10  40  40 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  67  81  66 /  60  30  20  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS


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