201 
FXUS64 KMRX 241056
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered light rain showers again today. No 
  significant weather expected.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected through the weekend
  before a warming trend early next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The bottom end of the upper trough will be swinging over the 
southern Appalachians today on its way to its rendezvous with the 
coastal storm. This should help initiate some additional rain 
showers, mainly in the morning hours but cannot rule out an isolated 
shower in the afternoon. Cannot rule out thunder with today's 
activity, but if any bark occurs not expecting a bite. Next few 
mornings starting Friday morning will be pleasantly cool, and a few 
lucky souls in southwest VA or far northeastern TN may see 
temperatures dip below 40F! For example, there's a 30% chance of 
this occurring per the NBM at both Mountain City and Glade Spring. 

Trough quickly ejects offshore as we head into the weekend and 
backside flow means we should be dry, pleasantly warm but 
comfortable with low afternoon RH values, and enjoying a good 
entrance into normal early fall weather for the MidSouth. Rain 
chances don't look to return until next Wednesday when both major 
models agree that a classic fall longwave trough will march from 
west to east across the CONUS. GFS is doing its usual too speedy 
bias, but NBM increases rain chances Wednesday to end the forecast 
and the month of September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Low stratus along with isolated showers present at the start of
the period. Our Cigs will gradually improve throughout the day
starting off with MVFR conditions and returning to low VFR by
mid-afternoon. Iso-showers in a TEMPO for TYS through late
morning. I can't rule out -SHRA at CHA or TRI, but less confident
with those sites. Winds stay light out of the NE today before
turning calm tonight into Friday morning. This could lead to
another night of low CIGs and/or fog. I did not include anything
in the TAF for that at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  61  80  55 /  20  20   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  57  76  51 /  40   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       75  56  76  51 /  50   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  48  73  44 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BH


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