404 
FXUS64 KMRX 251059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible at times today
  through the weekend. Best chances for rain during this period 
  is along the Plateau, central & southern valley, and into the E 
  TN mountains & SW NC. Relatively lower chances exist in NE TN 
  and SW VA. 

- By Sunday, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s.
  Hot and humid conditions alongside additional isolated to
  scattered storms at times for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern consist of broad ridging 
across much of the CONUS with a weaker trough over the northeast. A 
stationary boundary remains situated along our southern CWA border, 
and will be the focus for some scattered showers and perhaps a few 
rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Due to the morning overcast 
conditions CAPE is more limited today, thus, strong convection 
threat is very low. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out where 
poor antecedent conditions exist, but with the primary axis of 
convergence to our south and improved storm motion, the flooding 
threat is also much lower than previous days. 

Shortwave energy will dive into the Great Lakes region tomorrow, 
with increasing chances for precipitation as a weak vort max rounds 
the base of the aforementioned trough, which will then be digging 
into the southern Apps. CAPE looks to be very limited so this will 
be predominately showers. Still some disagreement with CAMs on how 
exactly timing/coverage plays out, but trends lean towards a period 
of increased PoP chances Saturday morning into the afternoon. A 
brief lull will then be possible, with some additional PoP 
chances returning Sat night. 

The trough axis looks to begin a slow eastward shift Sunday, with 
increasing H5 heights promoting a slight warming trend. Isolated 
convection cannot be ruled out in vicinity of higher terrain and 
southern valley Sunday afternoon, but most will remain dry for the 
bulk of the afternoon and evening. A drier vertical column with high 
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7degC 
could lead to gusty winds if storms can initiate. 

Additional periods of showers and storms will be possible into early 
next week as bouts of energy round the base of the trough. Highest 
PoP chances will be in north and eastern areas. With enhanced shear 
due to marginal mid and upper level flow, periods of strong to 
severe storm chances cannot be ruled out depending on timing and 
availability of instability. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday look 
to be the warmest days with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. 
A slight moderation in temperatures is expected late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Shower moving through the region this morning should slowly
dissipate, but could still bring light rain to KCHA/KTYS.
Additional showers expected this afternoon with heaviest showers
brining MVFR or IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  72  90  72 /  40  50  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  71  88  71 /  30  40  30   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  70  88  70 /  30  50  30   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  65  84  66 /  20  30  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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