Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026

...A strong coastal low will bring coastal flooding, rip currents, wind
gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend..

...Heavy rainfall/flooding threat from Arizona to the central High Plains
through tonight will begin to gradually lessen on Friday...

An upper-level trough digging into the eastern U.S. will interact with a
cool air mass sliding east into the western Atlantic to develop a deep
coastal cyclone just off the East Coast over the next few days.  The
cool air will be moistened and lifted by the digging upper trough as a
large high pressure system feeds that cool air across the still warm
waters of the western Atlantic.  The result will be a rather strong
cyclone that will bring widespread strong to gale-force winds up the East
Coast of the U.S. through the next few days.  Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding this cyclone's track, but models agree that the cyclone
center will approach and then stall just off southeastern New England
Friday and into the weekend.  Much of Friday could remain rain free along
the East Coast but cool and damp northeasterly winds will continue to
strengthen as the storm deepens offshore.  Steady rain may hold off until
Friday night across southeastern New England before spreading gradually
westward into southern New England by Saturday morning.  Additionally,
expect wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding,
high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.  Please see the latest WPC Key
Messages for this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners will be lifted ahead
of an upper-level trough moving onshore into Baja California, bringing a
moderate risk of flash flooding over south-central New Mexico and a slight
risk of flash flooding through the southern Rockies to the southern High
Plains through tonight.  The associated plume of moisture will gradually
shift east together with the upper trough, allowing the heavy rain threat
to gradually diminish on Friday for the southern Rockies to the southern
High Plains.  However, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for
southeastern New Mexico due to saturated soils from previous
rainfall.  Friday into Saturday morning should see moderate to locally
heavy rain developing and meandering over the central Plains toward Iowa
and Missouri ahead of a low-pressure wave and a stationary front.

A strong Pacific shortwave will deepen as it moves into the Pacific
Northwest late today.  The strong dynamics associated with this system will
result in widespread showers across Washington and Oregon reaching the
coast later today and through the interior Pacific Northwest on Friday.
With the arrival of cooler air, wet snow may occur over the highest
elevations within the northern Rockies and Cascades.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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