017 
FXUS64 KMRX 251901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected tonight. If multiple 
  storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be 
  possible.

- A warming trend begins tomorrow into the new work week. Monday
  and Tuesday will be the hottest days as heat indices in the mid
  90s to low 100s become more commonplace, especially in the
  central and southern valley.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms
  are possible Monday and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon
  and evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong 
  to severe storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and
  humidity are expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A ridge axis remains centered well to our west while bouts of energy 
will rotate through mean flow aloft this afternoon and tonight. This 
will amplify troughing over the Mid-Atlantic into the southern 
Appalachians. H85 and higher altitude flow will see minor 
enhancements in response to the increasing vorticity advection 
tonight. Because of this, the HREF suite depicts developing 
scattered showers and storms across the region. 

There will be a low risk of isolated flooding through the night. 
Aspects of the atmosphere in favor of isolated flooding will be high 
freezing-levels, anomalous PWATs, skinny CAPE profiles, and a few 
locations that remain with poor antecedent soil conditions. Working 
against the threat of isolated flooding is storm motion and lack of 
a surface boundary to train along. Additionally, latest RAP and 
NAMBufr soundings both depict a rather dry atmosphere at ~550mb and 
higher, suggesting limited depth of saturation.

Sunday afternoon looks to be mostly dry, though an isolated shower 
or storm cannot be totally ruled out. By Sunday night into early 
Monday morning CAMs are suggest a MCS progressing through northern 
KY and southward through portions of central and East Tennessee. 
This activity moves quite quick so flooding should not be of 
concern. The main focus will be keeping an eye on the potential for 
some strong to damaging wind gusts. NAM soundings depict a fairly 
stout low-level inversion so confidence is low that damaging gusts 
could make it to the surface. Will have to keep an eye on how the 
potential CAPE gradient plays out alongside timing trends. 

A more potent shortwave is expected to promote development of an 
upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into 
Wednesday. A surface low develops in response, and an associated 
cold front will bring increasing chances for showers and storms. 
NAMBufr soundings have quite an impressive thermodynamic profile at 
least for Tuesday afternoon, but timing of the storms may not 
necessarily work out to tap into peak heating and the latest hi-
resolution guidance does not quite make it into those overnight 
hours. LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE 1500+ J/kg and shear 
30+kts are generally around 40 to 60% in our northeastern locations 
where a day 4 Slight risk is currently in place. Primary hazard 
would be damaging winds. 

Regarding temperatures, Sunday through Tuesday will lean hot & humid.
Heat indices will be greatest Monday and Tuesday, with near to low 
100 degree values expected to creep into the central valley. Post 
FROPA, mostly dry and slightly cooler/less humid conditions are 
expected mid to late week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Very light showers are still traversing the area, maintained some
VCSH at CHA and TYS. Tonight low confidence in weather, with
degradation to MVFR CIGs medium confidence, and scattered showers
and thunderstorms possibly between TYS and TRI overnight, though
low confidence in location, coverage, and intensity. Apart from
lightning, low CIGs and low VIS during storms. Post 12z conditions
should begin gradually improving, but may remain MVFR for much of
the area into the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  91  72  93 /  60  20  20  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  88  71  90 /  80  30  30  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  88  70  90 /  80  20  20  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  84  66  86 /  60  50  20  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...Wellington


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