287 
FXUS64 KMRX 260521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected through this morning. If 
multiple storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be 
possible.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are 
possible tomorrow and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon and 
evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong to severe 
storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins today. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the 
hottest days as heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s become more 
commonplace, especially in the central and southern valley.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and
  humidity are expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The pattern for the last week of July can be characterized by 
continual broad ridging to the west and troughing to the northeast, 
placing us within the region of northerly to northwesterly flow. The 
near stationary boundary from the past few days still resides to our 
south and will continue to drive the weather, at least through 
today. Through this morning and possibly into the afternoon, streams 
of showers and storms will glide over the region from the northwest. 
If they are able to line up and train over the same area, isolated 
flooding could be possible. Later today tries to dry out from 
northwest to southeast.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning still remains a big question 
mark. 24 hours ago, models depicted a fairly stout shortwave 
rounding the top of the ridge, potentially bringing an MCS over or 
close to the area. It could very well just miss us to the west. 
Something to watch, even though high-res models cant's seem to all 
agree. Later in the day tomorrow may be dry for most with some 
isolated activity around.

A potentially stronger shortwave that may pass over the Great Lakes 
into Tuesday, will eventually bring a cold front across the region 
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This has now moved up in time 
compared to Friday night's forecast. Given the adjustment, assuming 
it doesn't change, the potential for severe weather will need to be 
closely monitored. At the time of this discussion, Day 3 and 4 from 
the SPC highlight northeastern parts of the area.

Following Tuesday potentially having the hottest temperatures of the 
week (upper 90s to low 100s heat indices in the valley), the cold 
front will send temperatures down a few degrees Wednesday until the 
end of the forecast period. Later Wednesday into Friday could be a 
brief dry period with lower humidity before we turn the page to 
August next weekend where precipitation chances return once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered showers developing across the region will at times
likely impact all the airports during the first 6 hours of this
TAF cycle. Could bring conditions down to IFR, and if it rains 
hard enough should see fog develop before sunrise. Confidence is 
low at this time until rain actually occurs. Expect coverage to 
decrease with the rising sun, leading to VFR conditions for most 
of the daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  72  93  74 /  20  20  30   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  71  90  74 /  30  30  30  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  70  90  73 /  20  20  30  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  66  86  69 /  50  20  20  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


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