831 
FXUS64 KMRX 250516
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
116 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected through the weekend 
  before a warming trend early next week. 

- Uncertainty as to when widespread rain chances will return to
  the region. Possibly not until the latter part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Light showers have ended across the area. The drying and cooling 
trend is set to begin. A closed low just off of the mid-Atlantic 
coast will slowly drift north as upper level ridging moves in from
the west, centering over the middle of the country into the 
weekend and the first full week of October. Under the upper low, 
coastal storm impacts are being felt across much of the Atlantic 
coast. Our area will be situated under high pressure with no 
precipitation in the forecast until maybe the end of the forecast 
period when another closed upper low/shortwave barrels east from 
CA and the desert SW. Of course, there are discrepancies this far 
out as to what will happen and when.

Under lower heights aloft from the coastal system and surface high 
pressure, temperatures will be running close to or just below normal 
for end of September and early October. A very welcomed thing to 
those tired of daily storms and record setting hot temperatures. Far 
northeastern parts of the CWA this morning may see lows in the 40s 
for the first time in a while. Drier air will continue filtering in, 
which will allow much cooler temperatures tomorrow morning and 
especially Sunday morning. 40s for lows could sink as far south as 
the I-40 corridor, excluding the Southern Appalachians. As ridging 
is allowed to edge a bit more east following the exit of the coastal 
upper low early next week, as well as surface high pressure moving 
to our east, warmer temperatures will begin increasing each day 
starting on Monday. Valley temperatures at the end of the forecast 
period will return to the mid to upper 80s and possibly more humid 
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Low clouds and possibly some patchy fog will be around early in 
the period, with the low clouds (MVFR) most likely to impact CHA 
with a lower chance at TYS, and the best chance for fog at TRI. 
Once the low clouds and any fog depart during the morning, we will
see VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  55  80  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  51  76  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  51  76  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  44  74  43 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


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