117 
FXUS64 KMRX 222314 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the far East TN
  mountains and portions of southwest VA through Monday night.
  Please refer to the Winter Weather Advisory product for more
  details.

- Outside of the advisory area, snow showers or flurries are
  expected for the Plateau, northeast Tennessee, rest of southwest
  Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. Snow accumulations of a
  dusting to 1 inch across southwest VA/northeast TN expected.
  Since temperatures have been pretty mild recently, accumulations
  will be mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces.

- Gusty winds through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected for 
  valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in highest peaks
  of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected 
  tonight through Monday across the higher elevations of the 
  southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 

- Strong system moves across the Tennessee valley and southern
  Appalachians Thursday. Strong winds and widespread showers are 
  currently associated with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Currently, widespread snow showers are moving across southwest
Virginia into northeast Tennessee. Initially the airmass is dry
but will quickly saturate. Area observations and webcams show
snowfall across much of this area with limited accumulations. 

Deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nations will
cyclonic flow over the Ohio and eastern Tennessee valley into the
central and southern Appalachians. Strong northwest boundary layer
flow with 850mb winds of 25-30 knots will produce good orographic
light into the southwest VA/far east Tennessee mountains through
Monday evening. 

HREF snow accumulations look overdone but do expect up to 6-8
inches across the highest elevations, such as Roane Mountain and
Smoky Mountains. Snowfall of 2 to 5 inches will be common.

For the lower elevations of northeast TN/southwest VA and 
Plateau, occasional snow showers or flurries are expected. Snow
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch possible. Due to recently warm
temperatures, snow accumulations will mainly be across elevated
and grassy surfaces for tonight and Monday.

Besides the snow, strong west to northwest winds will produce
wind chills across the higher peaks as low as 5 to 10 below zero.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper trough moves east with upper flow
becoming more zonal allowing for moderating temperatures and dry
conditions. 

For late Wednesday night and especially Thursday, a strong upper
jet moves into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys produing divergence
aloft over the region. This divergence strengthens the frontal 
genetic forcing along an incoming frontal boundary during the 
afternoon Thursday. Boundary layer winds are quite strong with the
850mb jet of 60-70 knots. Ensemble CAPE is quite limited even
though shear is high. Will need to monitor for possible strong
winds before and along line of showers.

This system moves quickly east with zonal upper flow returning
along with mild conditions. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Gusty winds will impact all sites through the period. Snow showers
will impact TRI, mainly in the first 6 hours of the TAF as a brief
snow shower may reduce vis/cigs to MVFR. These on/off snow showers 
may persist through the night, but will mention as a PROB30 until 
06Z for now. MVFR cigs are expected to linger at TRI overnight,
then lift to VFR tomorrow afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             23  39  22  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  23  36  20  47 /  20   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       22  36  21  46 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              22  32  19  42 /  40  30  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for 
     Russell-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


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