215 
FXUS64 KMRX 231121
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN 
  mountains and southwest VA through tonight. Please refer to the 
  Winter Weather Advisory product for more details.

- For lower level valley locations, a dusting to a few tenths of 
  an inch. Isolated amounts near an inch possible in the event of 
  consecutive moderate to heavy snow bands.

- Gusty winds through the evening. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph 
  expected for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in 
  highest peaks of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected 
  through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA,
  East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 

- Strong system moves across the Tennessee valley and southern 
  Appalachians Thursday. Strong winds and widespread showers are 
  possible with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

The forecast for the on-going snow remains in decent shape, 
albeit, snow had been slower to start accumulating in the Smoky 
Mtns. Latest obs from the Newfound Gap station now shows about 1 
1/4" snow depth. As mentioned in the evening update, an SPS was 
issued for portions of northeast Tennessee and an Advisory 
expanded to the remainder of southwest Virginia based on evening 
radar trends. Will just touch up the wording and numbers here this
morning but no additional changes at this time.

Snow will gradually taper off as moisture availability wanes 
tonight. Drier conditions with a gradual warming trend can be 
expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A vort max will move 
through the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night. An associated LLJ 
and strengthening pressure gradient will bring breezy winds Tuesday 
night into Wednesday. H85 flow is more westerly so this does not 
look to be a downslope event. 

Next chances for rain return Wednesday night with increasing 
isentropic lift ahead of a trough diving into the south central US. 
This will drive a front through the area Thursday. Another amplified 
LLJ is expected, this time with a more southwesterly orientation. 
Despite little to no instability in soundings, this will be worth 
watching for strong to isolated damaging winds as the high shear 
environment could transport strong winds aloft when the main axis of 
frontal forcing swings across the region. Drier conditions return 
late week and through much of the weekend.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Snow showers and flurries to start at TYS and TRI, and will 
include prob30 MVFR groups at both. Otherwise a VFR forecast for 
the period. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest 
through today, then will begin to diminish late. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Some light snow showers/flurries around to start especially TRI. 
Will include a prob30 MVFR vsby/cig group at TRI for several hours
this morning with these snow showers. Otherwise, will have a VFR 
forecast for the period all sites. Winds will be gusty from the 
west and northwest today, then will diminish tonight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             39  23  52  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  36  20  47  39 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       37  20  46  37 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  20  41  33 /  20  10   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Blount 
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


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