549 
FXUS64 KMRX 232321 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
621 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the far East TN mountains
  and southwest VA through this evening. Please refer to the 
  Winter Weather Advisory product for more details.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected 
  through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA,
  East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 

- Strong west to southwest winds possible Wednesdasy and Thursday
  especially across the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Radar and area observations continue to show a good deal of snow
showers or flurries across much of east Tennessee and southwest 
Virginia. Cyclonic around a deep upper low off the northeast
United States is keeping a good deal of low stratus cloud cover
across the area. Cold air will continue to squeeze out the
moisture producing light snow or flurries through at least this
evening. 

Reported snow accumulations across the advisory area has ranged 
from 1 to 4 inches with the highest peaks up to 6 inches.
Additional snowfall of 1/2 to 1 inch possible across the advisory
area.

As typically the case with strong cyclonic flow, stratu-cu
overcast is slow to erode. Definitely slower than NBM. A gradual
erosion of the clouds from southwest to northeast is expected
overnight.

For Tuesday, low clouds will be replaced by increasing high and
mid-level clouds. Deep upper low moves east with flow making the
transition to more zonal. This will allow for moderation of
temperatures.

For Wednesday through Thursday, fast zonal flow will allow for a
series of jet streaks to increase the boundary west to southwest
flow. The 850mb jet increases to 50 knots for Wednesday producing
increasing isentropic lift increasing the coverage of showers by
late in the day. By Wednesday night and Thursday morning, jet
dynamics strengthens with good divergence aloft. Increasing
fronto-genetic forcing and isentropic lift will producing
widespread showers. Ensemble analysis shows little to no
instability so thunder chances are low. Also, ensemble QPF shows a
60-70 percent probability of 24 hour rainfall of 1 inch so much
needed rainfall is expected with this system.

Besides the rain, windy conditions are expected across the higher
elevations for Wednesday and Thursday. 

For Friday and Saturday, drier flow aloft with weak surface
ridging will produce mild and dry conditions.

For Sunday and Monday, a series of jet streaks will once again
increase the moisture transport back north into the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys.  Increasing chances of showers are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Expecting VFR conditions at all sites through the period, although
there is a low chance of MVFR cigs at TRI overnight, mainly
06-12Z. The probability appears to low to mention in the TAF at
this time, and will amend as needed. Cloud cover will become
scattered late tonight or tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish 
in the next hour or two, and will shift to a SW direction 
tomorrow. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             23  53  38  60 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  20  47  39  56 /   0   0   0  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       20  46  37  56 /   0   0   0  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              19  42  33  52 /  10   0  10  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Blount 
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)