634 
FXUS64 KMRX 241111
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
611 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Light snow in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia is 
  winding down, ending entirely before morning.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected 
  through Monday night across the higher elevations of the 
  southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains. 

- Strong southwest or westerly winds possible Tuesday night and 
  Wednesday especially across the higher elevations.

- High rain chances Wednesday night through Thursday as another 
  system moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Some light snow can be seen on radar this evening in Southwest 
Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Recent accumulations reported are 
very light. HREF one hour snowfall has this snow tapering off 
shortly after midnight, ending entirely before morning. Lows will be 
in the upper teens and lower 20s this morning in the Tennessee 
Valley despite lingering clouds. Wind Chills in the single digits to 
below zero are expected through Monday night across the higher 
elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

In the upper levels, the deep trough over the East Coast is moving 
out to sea slowly. Northwest flow will continue as a trough moves 
into the Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is 
over the Southeast today. A low is moving into the Great Lakes 
tonight and Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the 
region Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance for rain will be 
Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary lingers. 
Temps will be warm enough for an all rain event. Although some light 
snow will be possible in Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast 
Tennessee as the boundary first approaches early Wednesday morning 
but no accumulation is expected.

Strong southwest winds possible Tuesday night and Wednesday 
especially across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds 
increasing Tuesday night peaking in the early morning hours around 
50 knots. Winds will become more westerly as the higher winds move 
in, so downsloping may be minimal. Cloud cover will keep stronger 
winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20 
to 25 mph still seem possible there. In the higher elevations of the 
East Tennessee Mountains a Wind Advisory may be issued later on.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night 
bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures. 
The weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak troughing 
aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this 
weekend with highs mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Any lingering low VFR clouds will clear out early followed by an
increase in high clouds, with VFR conditions expected to continue
for the period. The winds at 2kft will be strengthening overnight
and will likely result in LLWS at CHA and TRI late, but at TYS 
the southwest surface winds are expected to increase enough 
overnight to keep it below LLWS criteria.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  39  60  51 /   0   0  10  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  39  57  48 /   0  10  20  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  37  57  47 /   0  10  20  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              41  32  52  42 /   0  20  20  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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