ACUS02 KWNS 240651
SWODY2
SPC AC 240649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the
central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.

... Discussion ...

A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific
Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday.
At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within
a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight
near the Red River.

Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue
moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs
across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by
Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep
convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector.
However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow
throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic
ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and
a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday
night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area.

Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the
aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central
Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level
temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may
yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

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