935 
FXUS64 KMRX 242352
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected later today through Thursday,
  especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been 
  issued for the Smokies. 

- Rain will return area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday with 
  most places receiving between 1 and 2 inches. 

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with 
troughing to our east. Another shortwave/low pressure system is 
moving across the northern extent of the Great Lakes region with 
high pressure receding to our south. The increase in MSLP gradient 
and broad southwesterly 850mb flow. This will lead to increasingly 
breezy conditions across the region with high pressure promoting 
subsidence and low afternoon RH's. By this evening into the 
overnight period, the 40 to 50 kt 850mb jet will be to our west with 
a tightening MSLP gradient. This will make for continued breezy 
conditions overnight, especially across the higher elevations closer 
to the 850mb level. While downsloping is not expected in this setup, 
synoptic flow of over 40 kts will be more than sufficient for gusts 
near to above 40 mph across the higher elevations. Based on the high-
res data, there is reasonably high confidence for a Wind Advisory in 
the Smokies starting late this evening. On Wednesday, the flow will 
become more westerly with increasing moisture arriving from the 
southwest. This will lead to a return of precipitation chances, 
especially later in the day. The thermal profile suggests 
temperatures to be above freezing near and below 850mb, keeping 
precipitation as all rain. The profile will also be cool enough to 
keep instability to our south. Ultimately, Wednesday night through 
Thursday will provide some much needed rain to the region with the 
ongoing drought. With the expected moisture and duration of 
rainfall, most places are likely to see between 1 and 2 inches. 

By Friday, drier weather will return as high pressure builds back in 
from the north and west. A similar overall pattern will continue 
through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Height 
rises will help temperatures rise back well into the 60s with some 
lower 70s in southern portions of the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Increased cloudiness and southwesterly winds expected through the
overnight hours. A LLJ will increase out of the WSW during the
overnight as well. LLWS in place at CHA and TRI. Gusty winds
primarily at the SFC at TYS, will most likely prevent a LLWS set-
up there. TAF lines for beyond 18z added to reflect CIG to MVFR 
levels, and the probability of precipitation. Rain will be the 
predominate precipitation type, given warmer temperatures 
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             39  60  51  66 /   0  20  80  80 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  39  55  47  61 /  10  40  90  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       38  55  47  60 /  10  40  90  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  51  42  56 /  20  40  80  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


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