174 
FXUS64 KMRX 251120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
620 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected through this afternoon 
  especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been 
  issued for the Smokies. 

- Rain will return area-wide this evening through Thursday with 
  most places expected to receive between half an inch and 1.5 
  inches of rain. 

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S. 
Northwest flow will continue as a shortwave moves into the 
Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure is over
the Southeast as a low is moving through Ontario and Quebec to 
the north Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the 
region Wednesday night through Thursday. The best chance for rain 
will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary 
lingers. Forecast rainfall totals are half an inch to 1.5 inches 
with widespread rain expected. Temps will be warm enough for an 
all rain event. Although some light snow will be possible in 
Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast Tennessee as the boundary
first approaches early Wednesday morning but no accumulation is 
expected.

Strong southwest winds are expected through Wednesday especially 
across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds increasing and 
peaking in the early morning hours around 50 knots. Winds will 
become more westerly as the higher winds move in, so downsloping 
will be minimal. Advisory level winds (40+ mph gusts) are likely on 
the tallest peaks so mainly GSMNP. A Wind Advisory has been issued 
for the Smokies through late morning. Cloud cover will keep stronger 
winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20 
to 25 mph still seem possible there through Wednesday afternoon.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night 
bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures. 
Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak 
troughing aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer 
this weekend with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for 
next week but another chance for rain looks likely with mild temps 
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR to start all sites. Will continue LLWS briefly to start at 
CHA and TRI due to fairly light surface winds and wind magnitudes 
around 45 kts near 2,000 feet AGL. LLWS not included for TYS due 
to stronger surface winds. Winds will become gusty from the 
southwest all sites today. Will see rain and lower cigs/vsby 
moving in today and continuing into tonight, with conditions 
deteriorating to at least MVFR all sites and likely to IFR (or 
lower) at both TYS and TRI. May see LLWS again late in the period
mainly at CHA, but right now it looks too borderline to include 
that far out.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  51  65  46 /  30  80  90  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  47  60  43 /  40  90  90  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  47  60  41 /  30  90  80  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  43  55  39 /  30  90  80  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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