FOUS11 KWBC 250733
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026

...Great Lakes to New England... Day 1...

A clipper low shifts from Ontario to Quebec today before weakening
tonight. Post-frontal lake effect snow (LES) will continue in WNWly
flow from Lake Superior into this evening while banding off Lake
Ontario into the Tug Hill develops this afternoon and persists
through tonight. Day 1 WPC snow probabilities for >4" are 40-60% in
the north shore of the eastern U.P. and in the Tug Hill.

Warm air advection ahead of the low will continue to provide
moisture for the cold front to lift and bring light to moderate
snow to higher elevations. Day 1 PWPF for >4" are 30-60% in the
Greens, Whites, and along the central Maine coast.

The next clipper on Thursday continues a south trend, with
consensuskeeping snow away from areas impacted by this past
weekend blizzard.

...North-Central Rockies... Day 1...

Last portion of an atmospheric river shifts inland across the Great
Basin and over the WY/northern CO Rockies today before tapering off
tonight as ridging off the West Coast cuts off the Pacific
moisture influx. The declining moisture feed allows mainly moderate
precip rates with snow levels around 7000ft in WY and around
9000ft in northern CO that drops to around 7000ft by this evening
before precip tapers off. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 40-80% in this terrain.

...Cascades across the Northern Rockies onto the Northern Plains... Days 1-3...

Ridging off the West Coast today draws troughing from a low over
the Gulf of Alaska south into northwest WA today through Friday
morning where snow levels linger around 2000ft. Surface high
pressure shifts into northern Alberta late Friday and directs
frontal convergence and banded snow over eastern MT and the
Dakotas Friday night. Days 1-2 PWPF for >6" are 50-80% both days
over the north WA Cascades. Then the Day 3 PWPF for >6" is 50-80%
in Glacier NP terrain and for >4" is 20-40% over eastern MT, though
there is potential on 4" in the banding extending through the
Dakotas, just not confidence on the placement of the band -
somewhere near the ND/SD border is a reasonable consensus now.

Little to no ice accumulation is forecast Days 1-3.

Jackson

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