167 
FXUS64 KMRX 252359
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Widespread rain will move in this evening and continue through 
Thursday morning. Most places will see at least 1 inch with some 
locations along and near Interstate 40 possibly seeing 2 inches or 
more.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Currently, broad troughing is centered to our north and east with a 
surface low tracking across Canada. A frontal boundary also extends 
to our northwest. By this evening, the front will approach the 
region with moisture increasing from the southwest. This will lead 
to a return of rain chances, which will continue through Thursday 
morning. As the front becomes almost exactly lined up with 
Interstate 40, repeated rainfall is expected along these areas. This 
is further enhanced by mean flow being in a similar direction. CAMs 
show the possibility of over 2 inches in some locations. With up to 
100 J/kg of elevated instability, isolated storms could increase 
totals as well. Localized flooding is possible in some low-lying or 
urban areas, but with persistent drought and the need for rainfall, 
this threat is limited overall. Rain chances will decrease through 
the day on Thursday as the front drifts further south and east. 

By Friday, high pressure will build back into the region, leading to 
drier conditions. Another surface low will track far to our north 
into Saturday, leading to more southerly flow and warmer 
temperatures. This pattern remains largely the same on Sunday, but a 
strong Arctic High will come into our view over the northern U.S. 
Locally, a frontal boundary ahead of this Arctic High will promote 
another return of precip chances by early next week. Currently, the 
profiles suggest temperatures remaining high enough in our area to 
keep everything as mainly rain with colder air staying to our
north. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Deteriorating weather conditions expected in the coming hours with
the arrival of rainfall and lowering CIG. CIG and VSBY as low
as IFR with possible periods of LIFR during the overnight and
early morning hours. Inherited LLWS at CHA kept beginning at 06z.
Rain forecast to move out of the region of all terminals by early
afternoon, although CIG may only improve to as best as MVFR 
levels to finish out the TAF period. SWly winds will eventually
becoming more N-NEly with variable magnitude following the front's
passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             51  65  48  69 /  90  80  30  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  60  45  64 / 100  80  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       47  61  43  66 / 100  70  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  55  39  61 / 100  70  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


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