187 
FXUS64 KMRX 261125
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
625 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Widespread rain will continue through at least the morning 
  hours as a stationary boundary lingers. Most places will see at 
  least 1 inch with some locations along and near Interstate 40 
  possibly seeing 2 inches or more.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the 
surface, a stationary boundary across the region Wednesday night 
through Thursday will bring moderate to heavy rain at times. 
Stratiform rain has been intensifying on radar over the past couple 
of hours along and north of I-40. Moderate to heavy rain is upstream 
in Middle Tennessee moving east along and north of I-40. Rain will 
continue overnight as a stationary boundary lingers over the region. 
Rain will become more widespread overnight but the highest rain 
totals are expected along the I-40 corridor and northward, where up 
to 2 inches will be possible by midday Thursday. PWAT values are 
high around 1 inch through the morning hours, which is above the 
90th percentile (0.77in according to sounding climatology). Some 
minor flooding issues like ponding on roadways and low lying areas 
cannot be ruled out. Thunder potential is low but the best chance is 
south of I-40. Rain will start to move out during the afternoon 
hours on Thursday.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night 
bringing a slight drop in dew points Friday but not colder 
temperatures. Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal 
flow or weak troughing aloft with high pressure near the surface. 
Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this weekend 
with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for next week 
but another chance for rain looks likely (best chance on Monday) 
with mild temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Will see rain and MVFR/IFR conditions continue all sites through
the morning, with the rain ending by early afternoon followed by 
gradual improvement in conditions. May see VFR conditions by late 
in the day. Fog will be possible late especially TYS and TRI, but
confidence in the details is low and will just include MVFR vsby
both sites for now. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  45  68  44 /  90  20   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  43  64  41 /  90  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  42  65  40 /  90  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  37  61  38 /  90  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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