FOUS11 KWBC 260801
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 26 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026

...Cascades & Northern Rockies... Days 1-2...

Strong westerly upper flow across the Northwest overtop a stout
western U.S. ridge allows for persistent moisture flux into
favorable western upslope terrain of the WA Cascades and northern
Rockies until flow turns more northwesterly and drier by Saturday.
Snow levels are forecast to remain around 2000-3000ft across the
region before dropping below 2000ft across northwest MT on Saturday
as a strong cold front dives southward and increases precipitation
on Day 2. WPC probabilities for at least 8" of snow are 70-90%
above about 4000ft in the northern WA Cascades and the Lewis
Range/Glacier National Park region of northwest MT.

...Northern Plains... Days 2-3...

A surface low and its attendant cold front will develop in the lee
of the Canadian Rockies before scooting south and eastward across
southern Canada through the period. In its wake, a strong surface
high (nearing 1040 mb) will descend southward to along the
U.S./Canada border and enhance the frontal zone as it stalls across
the northern Plains. A strong gradient between higher mid/upper
heights to the south and lower heights to the north will support a
strong 150 kt 250 mb jet streak draped across northeast MT and the
Dakotas. Strong forcing for ascent underneath the right entrance
region of this jet coupled with intense 850-700mb frontogenesis,
per model cross-sections, will likely lead to WNW-ESE oriented
banded snowfall between Saturday morning in the northern High
Plains and potentially lingering Saturday evening into parts of
southern WI/northern IL. Additionally, a wide DGZ (SREF
probabilities >30% for at least 100 mb) will likely lead to above
climatology SLRs wherever forcing can squeeze out the limited
moisture available in the atmosphere. These potential snowbands
will likely be fairly narrow and therefore, not properly identified
or washed out within ensemble probabilistic guidance given the
large spread in the location of these bands. Still, WPC
probabilities for >4" are low (10-40%) for parts of
northern/eastern MT, southern ND and northern SD. Probabilities for
>2" are much higher and have increased to 50-70% across southern
ND, northeast SD and southeast MN.

The probability of significant ice accumulation is less

Snell


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