459 
FXUS64 KMRX 262343
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rainfall had mostly moved out of the forecast area this afternoon,
though some lingering showers were still ongoing over the TN
mountains and from the far southern TN valley eastward into our 
NC counties. Expect dry conditions area wide by 3-4 PM this
afternoon, which will then last through the weekend before the 
next chance of rain arrives Sunday night into early next week. 

For tonight, some uncertainty exists with respect to how much
clearing we'll see, and subsequently whether any fog or low cloud
development will take place. Lack of notable air mass change
suggests we will see both, and the forecast and temperatures
reflect that. Despite broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and
TN valley, we'll see a notable warming trend over the weekend 
with temperatures pushing 10-15 degrees above normal.

The next chance of rain is late Sunday night into Monday as a weak
southern stream disturbance slides east from the Ozarks, along or
just north of the KY/TN border. This is a quick hitting system
with no chances of severe storms or heavy rains to speak of. For
the mid to latter parts of next week the upper pattern becomes
more amplified, with a western trough and shortwaves ejecting
northeast from the southern plains into the Ohio valley roughly
speaking. Locally, I think there's fairly high uncertainty as to
our rain chances, and certainly our chances for any heavy rains or
thunderstorm activity, during this time. As noted, some guidance
takes the Sun night/Mon disturbance eastward through Kentucky or
even the southern Ohio valley area while others slide it east
along the TN/KY line. The southern path opens the door for maybe a
stalled frontal boundary over our area Tue into the mid week time
frame before the upper pattern amplifies and we wind up in firmly
on the dry side of an open warm sector. This would mean chances
for rain lasting Monday into mid week before drying out. Either
way we'll be significantly warmer than normal as heights begin to
build over the southeast, but the more northern track Sun/Mon 
just means we'd likely be dry for much of next week and warmer
still.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rain has moved out of the region but some low clouds will linger
overnight. Fog is also a possibility especially near TYS and TRI.
Fog may be dense at TRI but confidence is low with low clouds
expected to linger. MVFR conditions are likely at TYS and TRI
through the morning hours. VFR conditions will return tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             44  68  43  72 /  20   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  41  63  40  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       38  64  40  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              38  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...McD


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