ACUS02 KWNS 270658
SWODY2
SPC AC 270656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.

...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.

...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

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