FOUS11 KWBC 280725
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 28 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

...Northern High Plains, Great Lakes, & Northeast... Days 1-2...

A narrow but intense corridor of moderate to heavy snow will track
rapidly east-southeast from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes
today. The heaviest snow late this morning will center from
southeastern North Dakota-northeastern South Dakota into southern
Minnesota, where strong low-mid-level frontogenesis and favorable
upper jet forcing will likely support a brief period of rates
exceeding 1"/hr. While this will be a fast-moving system, the
thermal profile remains cold throughout the column, supporting high
snow-to-liquid ratios and a fluffy snow that will accumulate
quickly. WPC probabilities indicate that additional accumulations
(after 12Z) of 2-4" are likely from southeastern North Dakota-
northeastern South Dakota through southern Minnesota into southern
Wisconsin today. Embedded within this axis is an area of 30 percent
probabilities for amounts over 4" centered over southern Minnesota.

As the system moves across the Great Lakes on Sunday, forcing is
expected to weaken and the band is forecast to become disorganized,
with a diminishing threat for heavy accumulations downstream.

...Central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic... Days 2-3...

The synoptic setup will be driven by a southern stream shortwave
trough ejecting from the Pacific, suppressing a downstream ridge
centered over the Southwest on Saturday before tracking into the
Central Plains on Sunday. This upper-feature will be guided by
northern stream jet streak, steering the energy toward the Mid-
Atlantic while simultaneously pushing a surface cold front south
into the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Amplifying low level
winds will tap Gulf moisture, supporting deepening moisture and a
broadening precipitation shield developing well north of the
boundary. A northward-surging warm nose will favor a transition to
a wintry mix along the northern edge of the precipitation shield
from eastern Nebraska-Kansas through the mid Mississippi into the
Ohio valleys Sunday into early Monday, while a persistent surface
high-pressure wedge will support a similar mix of precipitation
types over the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Monday
into early Tuesday.

For most of these areas, WPC probabilities for measurable ice
(0.01" max out in the 30-50 percent range. A notable exception
are the central Appalachians, where probabilities reach 70 percent
along the West Virginia Allegheny Mountains by early Tuesday, with
some 30 percent probabilities for accumulations over 0.10" there
as well. Probabilities suggest that snow accumulations will remain
an inch or less for most impacted areas. The latest run only shows parts
of northern Missouri and isolated parts of the West Virginia
mountains with probabilities greater than 50 percent for amounts
over an inch.

Pereira

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)