120 
FXUS64 KMRX 282322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Rain chances return the first of the week, mainly north of I-40.

- Warming trend next week with high temps 15 to 20 degrees above
  normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Pleasant weekend weather continues today and tomorrow with plenty of 
sun, mostly clear skies, and light winds  in place. Very weak 
frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the Tennessee 
Valley. This will make a push southward heading into next week. A 
weak disturbance will ride north of this boundary within the broader 
troughing in the mid/upper levels. This will bring our next chance 
of precipitation to the region. Current location of the better 
synoptic energy is north of Interstate 40, but even these locations 
aren't expected to see too much precipitation. Northeast TN into 
southwest VA could see a couple of tenths of precipitation on 
Monday, but with the weak energy in this system still expecting all 
rain, and no thunderstorms.

Biggest weather story of next week will be the rapid warming with 
highs possibly eclipsing the 80 degree mark in southeast TN on 
Friday. There will be a battle ground next week between the strong 
ridge over the southeast and a few low pressure systems moving out 
of the west. Currently looks like this will result in lots of rain 
over the Mississippi Valley into the western Tennessee Valley, but 
worth keeping an eye on because if these systems shift eastward 
we'll get more chances for rain. So while we have precipitation 
chances increasing over the weekend, at this time, it looks to be 
more showery instead of widespread rain further to our west.

However we do feel much more confident on the warm temperatures for 
the end of the week as the ridge strengthens. The specific 
temperatures can and likely will change as we get closer, but as of 
right now the forecast is within a handful of degrees of record 
highs in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR TAFs area wide through the period, with dry weather expected.
Ceilings in the north, including KTRI, will be lowering through
the period as a weak system approaches and passes, but currently
expected to remain VFR. Winds tomorrow may have an isolated gust
to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             46  74  47  67 /   0   0  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  69  45  62 /  10  10  20  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  69  44  60 /  10  10  20  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              42  63  38  54 /   0  10  10  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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