636 
FXUS64 KMRX 011108 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Slight chance of rain nearest the Kentucky border today, then
  increasing for tomorrow but mainly north of I-40.

- Better chances for widespread rainfall the end of the week and
  into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures approaching
  20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

The weekend will end with another dry day for most. A cold front
moving through later today will build cloud cover over the area 
and bring an outside chance of rain primarily to southwest 
Virginia. Near Knoxville and south may see temperatures a bit 
warmer today compared to yesterday. Because of the incoming front 
and clouds, locations to the north may end up being a bit cooler, 
in comparison.

For tomorrow, chances of rain will increase almost everywhere with
a system expected to develop over the Plains and move east. Those
with the best chance of seeing precipitation will be around I-40 
and north. It's possibly some higher elevation locations see a mix
of rain and snow, but not expecting any wintery impacts. We should
generally be on the warm side of the developing cold air wedge
east of the mountains.

Tuesday we try to dry out as the boundary lifts north and ridging
builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to remain 
locked to north with possibly dry weather continuing into 
Wednesday. By around Thursday, a fairly pronounced shortwave
trough moves in to our north across the Ohio Valley. There are
growing differences in model output, but this could bring a
stronger system to the area with widespread rain possible.
Thereafter, Friday and into the beginning of the weekend continues
an unsettled weather trend.

Tuesday until the end of the forecast period, will continue a
warming trend across the area. By the end of the week and
beginning of the weekend, low 80s are possible for valley
locations. Knoxville, for example, doesn't even average 60 degrees
yet for early March, so we'll be seeing temperatures around 20 
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

No aviation impacts this period. Midlevel clouds will be broken to
scattered through the day, with a wind shift to north late in the
afternoon as a front moves across the area. Winds will remain 
less than 10 kt, and clouds will remain at VFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  50  69  52 /   0  20  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  46  64  49 /   0  30  30  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  45  62  50 /   0  30  30  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  40  54  43 /  10  10  50  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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