FOUS30 KWBC 010645
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND INDIANA...

A mid/upper wave initially over the Intermountain West/Central
Rockies will make eastward progress throughout the forecast period,
fostering surface cyclogenesis in the general vicinity of southern
Kansas/Oklahoma. As this occurs, an expansive warm/moist advection
regime will become established across much of the Mississippi/Lower
Ohio River Valleys and Missouri Ozarks. A warm front will become
established in the general vicinity of the I-70 corridor across
central Illinois, providing a focus for areas of repeating
rainfall/convection supported by westerly steering flow aloft
parallel to the front. A few areas of 1-2 inches of rainfall are
possible. Main uncertainties/mitigating factors for excessive
rainfall involve 1) extremely dry antecedent conditions in most
areas, with soil moistures quite low for the time of year, 2)
uncertainly in location of the warm front and associated precip
axis (GFS north, EURO/UKMET farther south), and lack of surface-
based instability for deep convection. Marginal Risk area has been
maintained for this outlook from the prior D4 ERO, though
uncertainties/mitigating factors have led to a substantial
shrinking of this risk from the prior forecast.  

Cook
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