177 
FXUS64 KMRX 012341
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, Monday morning through late 
afternoon.  

- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and 
into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
  approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
  Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Mostly zonal flow in place to start the period. A weak shortwave 
moves through the flow and brings some rain showers into our area 
tomorrow morning through afternoon. Most of the precip should be 
north of I-40, with the best chances across northeast TN and into 
southwest VA. A few light rain showers possible south of I-40 but
only slight chance POPs. 

Tuesday through Thursday features mostly dry conditions across the 
area along with warming temperatures as a ridge of high pressure 
strengthens across the southeastern U.S. There are some slight 
chance POPs in place on Thursday due to a weakening frontal 
boundary moving into the area. Additionally, record high temps are
currently forecast at CHA and TYS on Thursday.

Model consensus shows the ridge breaking down by the weekend. This 
will pave the way for an approaching system to make a push through 
the area, bringing higher chances of more widespread rainfall. Storm 
total QPF from Friday night through Sunday night shows roughly 0.5 
to 0.75 inches across the area. 

Overall, no hazardous weather expected at this time.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
03-08   81(2000)       78(1974)       78(2000)       79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Low level dry air will be attempting to keep lower ceilings and
incoming rain tomorrow at bay, though light rain is likely at TRI
before moving away to the north. Sprinkles possible at TYS, with 
rain less certain. Dry south of KTYS. Cannot rule out IFR 
ceilings at TRI briefly associated with the rain during otherwise 
MVFR conditions. A return to VFR at KTRI is likely before the end 
of the period. Winds will remain generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  70  51  71 /  30  10  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  64  48  71 /  40  50  10  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       46  62  49  70 /  50  50  10  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              40  55  43  66 /  30  70  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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