678 
FXUS64 KMRX 021117 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
617 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, this morning into the
  afternoon hours.
  
- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and 
  into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
  approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
  Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

A chance for rain will increase later this morning and into the
afternoon, as a system that developed over the Plains heads 
eastward. Riding along a boundary to our south, the system will 
send the heaviest precipitation just north of us. From 
approximately I-40 and north, anywhere from a few hundredths to up
to around a quarter of an inch of rainfall can be expected. Cold 
air damming is also expected to develop east of the mountains, 
causing changing precipitation type and much colder surface 
temperatures, but we should be just enough on the warmer side of 
things, that the precipitation should remain mostly rain. WSSI
depicts this with all winter storm impacts from about southern WV
and north. Temperatures will be cooler today under cloudier 
skies.

Tomorrow we try to dry out as the boundary lifts north and 
ridging builds in aloft. The axis of precipitation is forecast to 
remain locked to north with dry weather continuing into Wednesday.
By around Thursday, a fairly pronounced shortwave trough moves in
to our north across the Ohio Valley. There are growing 
differences in model output, but this could bring a stronger 
system to the area with much better chances for rain. Thereafter, 
Friday and into the weekend continues an unsettled weather pattern.
Sometime during the weekend, possibly around Sunday, a much 
stronger frontal system will develop eventually impacting our 
region. We'll have to monitor this system and possible the priors 
closely, as we heat up this week increasing our instability. Dew 
points will be pushing into the 60s this weekend. SPC is already 
highlighting Day 6 well west of our area as having a 15% chance of
severe weather.

On the brighter (warmer?) side of things, especially for those 
that love warmer temperatures, tomorrow until the end of the 
forecast period will begin another warming trend across the area. 
By the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, low 80s are 
possible for valley locations. Knoxville, for example, doesn't 
even average 60 degrees yet for early March, so we'll be seeing 
temperatures around 20 degrees above normal. Temperatures appear
will cool off some on Sunday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge            
03-05   80(1955)       78(2022)       77(2022)       78(1955)       
03-06   82(1956)       79(2022)       79(2022)       81(1956)       
03-07   82(2000)       80(1983)       79(1956)       80(1956)       
03-08   81(2000)       78(1974)       78(2000)       79(2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Midlevel clouds will be broken to overcast through the TAF period.
Some light rain is possible at TRI and TYS through the day, but
predominant VFR conditions are expected with the light precip.
Cigs may lower to low end VFR in the last 6 hours of this period.
Some strong winds aloft tonight may warrant the addition of LLWS
with later TAF issuances, but it seems too marginal to mention now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  52  71  52 /  20  10   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  49  71  49 /  50  10  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  50  70  50 /  60  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  45  67  44 /  80  20  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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