557 
FXUS64 KMRX 092327
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
627 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Warmer temperatures this week with highs mainly in the 50s and
  60s in the Tennessee Valley. Highs Tuesday will be around 15 
  degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night/Wednesday, then 
  again late in the week with rain being the predominant 
  precipitation type.

- Mountain Wave High Wind Event possible for Saturday night and
  Sunday. Currently looking like an advisory event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A flat upper ridge will be the main flow pattern for much of the 
week with a series of jet streaks producing periods of rain. Next 
weekends upper trough will of the strongest systems. Due to the 
higher heights all week and predominant southern stream effecting 
the region, temperatures will be on the mild side with highs mainly 
in the 50s and 60s. Currently, Tuesday looks to be the warmest day 
with highs 15+ degrees above normal.

For Tonight, surface ridging will remain across the region with 
mostly clear sky until around daybreak. This will allow for good 
radiational cooling.   

For Tuesday, increasing isentropic lift as west to southwest 
boundary layer jet increases. Increasing cloud cover is expected 
with unseasonably mild temperatures. Highs will be 15+ degrees 
above normal.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a frontal boundary will 
move across the area supported by a northern stream jet across the 
upper Ohio valley and southern stream jet over the lower Mississippi 
valley. Broad upper divergence will support the fronto-genetic 
forcing along this boundary. HREF/REFS and latest deterministic 
models produce around 1/4 inch of QPF.

For Wednesday and much of Thursday, surface ridging and continued 
dominance of southern stream will produce dry and mild conditions.

For late Thursday and Friday, models in disagreement on the 
potential of showers with another wave that quickly move across the 
lower Ohio/Tennessee valleys. Otherwise, continued mild conditions.

For this weekend, a much strong upper trough will move into the 
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Increasing isentropic 
lift as 850mb jet increases to 30-40 knots for Saturday and Saturday 
night. Stronger jet forcing also possible as well. More significant 
QPF is possible even though downsloping expected across the northern 
and central Tennessee valley.

Also, the increase in the boundary layer jet will likely produce a 
mountain wave high wind event for Saturday night and Sunday.

Drier conditions return for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions will continue through the night and
into the early morning hours. After sunrise, some mid to even
lower level clouds will move into the region, especially around
CHA. VFR was maintained, but MVFR can't be completely ruled out.
Also, southwesterly winds will strengthen through the day with
gusts of 20 kts possible at TYS. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             45  73  51  63 /   0   0  70  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  69  46  57 /   0   0  80  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       40  68  45  57 /   0  10  80  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  61  41  51 /   0  10  80  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)