FOUS30 KWBC 020812
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

Models remain consistent in developing an axis of precipitation
along a warm front extending generally from southeastern Kansas 
eastward along the Ohio River Valley. Models do vary, however, with
specific location of this front. Areas of 0.5-1.5 inch of rainfall
are expected within the Marginal Risk area, with a few spots 
exceeding 2 inches possible. The nature of the front (parallel to 
westerly steering flow aloft) will enable some training, and if 
deeper convection can organize (as suggested by the ECMWF), locally
higher amounts may be observed. Antecedent dry conditions continue
to remain a limiting factor for flash flood potential as much of 
the region has very high soils and is in drought. A few issues with
runoff are possible - with potetial maximized in the Marginal Risk
area during the 00Z-12Z Wed 4 Mar forecast period.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Low-level warm advection will intensify across the southern Plains
and Ozarks as a mid-level wave approaches the central Plains 
(while taking a neutral tilt) throughout the forecast period. As 
this occurs, low-level cyclogenesis and strengthing of a surface 
cold front over eastern Kansas/Oklahoma will foster areas of deep 
convection that should migrate northeastward across the Marginal 
Risk area. Models suggest that initial convection should 
materialize as scattered clusters within the broader warm conveyor 
from north Texas into Missouri, with a gradual congealing into a
forward-propagating complex late in the period. Specific spatial 
details regarding this evolution are unclear, but areas of 2-3.5 
inches of rainfall appear to be likely where cells can repeat/merge
on a localized basis. Soil moistures/antecedent conditions are 
quite dry, however, casting some doubt on the runoff potential 
across the region. Nevertheless, varied/locally sensitive terrain
(especially in the Ozarks) and heavy rainfall suggests at least 
isolated runoff issues can be expected. Depending of specific 
convective evolution, a Slight Risk may be needed in portions of 
Missouri in later outlooks.

Farther northeast (into Indiana and Ohio), the D3 forecast period
will mark a second consecutive day of potential 1 inch rainfall
along/near a surface warm front across the region. Overall
instability profiles remain marginal, but with wetting soils, a
gradual increase in excessive runoff potential may necessitate a
Marginal Risk area in later outlooks.

Cook
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 * Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)