763 
FXUS64 KMRX 022337
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Rain showers, mainly north of I-40, continuing through the
  afternoon.
  
- Better chances for widespread rainfall by the end of the week and 
  into the weekend.

- Warming trend this coming week, with high temperatures
  approaching 20 degrees above normal heading into the weekend.
  Record high temperatures forecast for most areas on Thursday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Scattered light rain showers continue to traverse across the area 
today brining with it mainly drizzle. We'll see a bit of a lull in 
activity early in the afternoon before another band moves through 
brining additional light rain. ColdΓÇæair damming is expected to 
develop east of the mountains, which may influence precipitation 
type and surface temperatures, but conditions should remain warm 
enough for precipitation to fall mainly as rain. Today will be the 
"coldest" day of the forecast under these clouds with highs reaching 
60's for many.

Drying begins the following day as the boundary lifts north and 
ridging builds aloft. The axis of precipitation is expected to stay 
locked to the north, with dry weather continuing into Wednesday. By 
Thursday, a more pronounced shortwave trough moves across the Ohio 
Valley. Model differences are increasing, but this feature could 
bring a stronger system with higher rain chances. An unsettled 
pattern continues into Friday and the weekend. At some point during 
the weekend, possibly around Sunday, a much stronger frontal system 
is expected to develop and eventually impact the region. This 
system, along with the preceding ones, will need to be monitored 
closely as warming temperatures increase instability. Dew points are 
forecast to rise into the 60s over the weekend, which means if the 
system moves further east we could see a chance for increased 
thunderstorm activity.

The most "exciting" part of the forecast is trying to determine if 
we'll break high temperature records... A warming trend begins after 
the midweek drying period and continues through the end of the 
forecast. By late week and into the weekend, valley locations may 
reach the low 80s. For perspective, KnoxvilleΓÇÖs average high for 
early March is still below 60 degrees, meaning temperatures could 
run about 20 degrees above normal. A cooldown appears likely by 
Sunday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville    TriΓÇæCities    Oak Ridge
03ΓÇæ05   80 (1955)      78 (2022)    77 (2022)     78 (1955)
03ΓÇæ06   82 (1956)      79 (2022)    79 (2022)     81 (1956)
03ΓÇæ07   82 (2000)      80 (1983)    79 (1956)     80 (1956)
03ΓÇæ08   81 (2000)      78 (1974)    78 (2000)     79 (2000)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Light rain showers are still crossing the mid-section of Tennessee
right now, so kept a mention in for rain at TYS and vicinity for
CHA. TAFs are mainly VFR, with the exception at KCHA, where
influence from low ceilings in Georgia are forecast to bring a
period of MVFR conditions to Chattanooga. A few southerly gusts 
15 to 20 knots tomorrow afternoon as mixing tries to re-establish 
before evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  72  52  79 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  72  50  78 /  10  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       50  71  51  76 /  10  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  68  46  73 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...Wellington


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